Costs of Reducing Carbon Emissions: An Integrated Modeling Framework Approach

Gritsevskii, A. & Schrattenholzer, L. (2003). Costs of Reducing Carbon Emissions: An Integrated Modeling Framework Approach. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-03-007. Reprinted from Climatic Change, 56:167-184 [2003].

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Abstract

This paper presents an approach to estimating world-regional carbon mitigation cost functions for the year 2020, 2050, and 2100. The approach explicitly includes uncertainty surrounding such carbon reduction costs. It is based on the global energy-economy- environment scenarios described for the 21st century. We use one baseline scenario and variants thereof to estimate cumulative costs of carbon mitigation as a function of cumulative carbon emission reductions. For our baseline for estimating carbon mitigation cost curves, we use the so-called IIASA F scenario. The F scenario is a high growth, high-emissions scenario designed specifically to be used as a reference against which to evaluate alternatives. Carbon emissions and energy systems costs in the F scenario are then compared with (reduced) emissions and (higher) costs (including macroeconomic adjustment costs) of alternative scenarios taken from the IIASA scenario database. As a kind of sensitivity analysis of our approach, we also present the results of a scenario involving assumptions on particularly rapid technological progress.

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