%0 Journal Article
%@ 1573-1480
%A Frank, S.
%A Böttcher, H.
%A Gusti, M.
%A Havlík, P.
%A Klaassen, G.
%A Kindermann, G.
%A Obersteiner, M.
%D 2016
%F iiasa:13380
%I Springer
%J Climatic Change
%K 2030 climate and energy policy framework, greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target, LULUCF, land use change, forestry
%N 1
%P 253-266
%R 10.1007/s10584-016-1729-7
%T Dynamics of the land use, land use change, and forestry sink in the European Union: the impacts of energy and climate targets for 2030
%U https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13380/
%V 138
%X A 2030 climate and energy policy framework was endorsed by the European Council in 2014. The main elements are a binding 40 % greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target compared to 1990, a renewable energy share of 27 %, and an energy savings target of at least 27 % by 2030. In this paper, we assess the impact of these targets on the European land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector using a Europe focused global land use model linked with a detailed forest management model. We show that implementing a 40 % GHG emission reduction target by 2030 may only have a small negative impact on the domestic LULUCF sink if the additional biomass demand for energy is mostly met through ligno-cellulosic energy crops rather than forest removals. However, if the increased biomass demand were met through higher rates of forest harvest removals, a more negative impact on the LULUCF sink could be expected.
%Z This study was financially supported by the European Commission – DG Climate Action through the tender contract ‘Development and application of EU economy-wide climate change mitigation modelling capacity (all greenhouse gas emissions and removals)’, contract ref no. 071303/2011/600928/SER/CL1MA.A.4. www.euclimit.eu