eprintid: 13413 rev_number: 27 eprint_status: archive userid: 5 dir: disk0/00/01/34/13 datestamp: 2016-07-26 07:24:25 lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:27:28 status_changed: 2016-07-26 07:24:25 type: article metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Rao, S. creators_name: Klimont, Z. creators_name: Smith, S.J. creators_name: Van Dingenen, R. creators_name: Dentener, F. creators_name: Bouwman, L. creators_name: Riahi, K. creators_name: Amann, M. creators_name: Bodirsky, B.L. creators_name: van Vuuren, D.P. creators_name: Aleluia Reis, l. creators_name: Calvin, K. creators_name: Drouet, L. creators_name: Fricko, O. creators_name: Fujimori, S. creators_name: Gernaat, D. creators_name: Havlik, P. creators_name: Harmsen, M. creators_name: Hasegawa, T. creators_name: Heyes, C. creators_name: Hilaire, J. creators_name: Luderer, G. creators_name: Masui, T. creators_name: Stehfest, E. creators_name: Strefler, J. creators_name: van der Sluis, S. creators_name: Tavoni, M. creators_id: 1771 creators_id: 1473 creators_id: 1696 creators_id: 1136 creators_id: 2004 creators_id: 8258 creators_id: 1868 creators_id: 8463 creators_id: 1540 creators_orcid: 0000-0003-2630-198X creators_orcid: 0000-0001-7193-3498 creators_orcid: 0000-0002-1963-0972 creators_orcid: 0000-0002-6835-9883 creators_orcid: 0000-0001-7897-1796 creators_orcid: 0000-0001-5551-5085 creators_orcid: 0000-0001-5254-493X title: Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways ispublished: pub divisions: prog_air divisions: prog_ene divisions: prog_esm divisions: prog_mag keywords: Scenarios; air pollution; integrated assessment models abstract: Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high, central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. The resulting pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. In the SSP3 and SSP4 scenarios, where economic, institutional and technological limitations slow air quality improvements, global pollutant emissions over the 21st century can be comparable to current levels. Pollutant emissions in the SSP1 scenarios fall to low levels due to the assumption of technological advances and successful global action to control emissions. date: 2017-07-15 date_type: published publisher: Elsevier id_number: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.012 creators_browse_id: 244 creators_browse_id: 159 creators_browse_id: 250 creators_browse_id: 15 creators_browse_id: 97 creators_browse_id: 2881 creators_browse_id: 119 creators_browse_id: 1314 creators_browse_id: 123 full_text_status: public publication: Global Environmental Change volume: 42 pagerange: 346-358 refereed: TRUE issn: 1872-9495 projects: Advanced Model Development and Validation for Improved Analysis of Costs and Impacts of Mitigation Policies (ADVANCE, FP7 308329) coversheets_dirty: FALSE fp7_project: yes fp7_project_id: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/308329/EU/Advanced Model Development and Validation for Improved Analysis of Costs and Impacts of Mitigation Policies/ADVANCE fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article access_rights: info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess citation: Rao, S. , Klimont, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2630-198X , Smith, S.J., Van Dingenen, R., Dentener, F., Bouwman, L., Riahi, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498 , Amann, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1963-0972 , et al. (2017). Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways. Global Environmental Change 42 346-358. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.012 . document_url: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13413/1/Future%20air%20pollution.pdf