IIASA RepositoryLifting the US crude oil export ban: A numerical partial equilibrium analysisL.LangerauthorD.HuppmannauthorF.HolzauthorThe upheaval in global crude oil markets and the boom in shale oil production in North America brought scrutiny on the US export ban for crude oil from 1975. The ban was eventually lifted in early 2016. This paper examines the shifts of global trade flows and strategic refinery investments in a spatial, game-theoretic partial equilibrium model. We consider detailed oil supply chain infrastructure with multiple crude oil types, distinct oil products, as well as specific refinery configurations and modes of transport. Prices, quantities produced and consumed, as well as infrastructure and refining capacity investments are endogenous to the model. We compare two scenarios: an insulated US crude oil market, and a counter-factual with lifted export restrictions. We find a significant expansion of US sweet crude exports with the lift of the export ban. In the US refinery sector, more (imported) heavy sour crude is transformed. Countries importing US sweet crude gain from higher product output, while avoiding costly refinery investments. Producers of heavy sour crude (e.g. the Middle East) are incentivised to climb up the value chain to defend their market share and maintain their dominant position.2016-10ElsevierArticle

For work being deposited by its own author: In self-archiving this collection of files and associated bibliographic metadata, I grant IIASA Repository the right to store them and to make them permanently available publicly for free on-line. I declare that this material is my own intellectual property and I understand that IIASA Repository does not assume any responsibility if there is any breach of copyright in distributing these files or metadata. (All authors are urged to prominently assert their copyright on the title page of their work.)

For work being deposited by someone other than its author: I hereby declare that the collection of files and associated bibliographic metadata that I am archiving at IIASA Repository) is in the public domain. If this is not the case, I accept full responsibility for any breach of copyright that distributing these files or metadata may entail.

Clicking on the deposit button indicates your agreement to these terms.