eprintid: 13736 rev_number: 26 eprint_status: archive userid: 5 dir: disk0/00/01/37/36 datestamp: 2016-08-17 12:06:39 lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:27:38 status_changed: 2016-08-17 12:06:39 type: article metadata_visibility: show item_issues_count: 0 creators_name: Alexander, P. creators_name: Prestele, R. creators_name: Verburg, P.H. creators_name: Arneth, A. creators_name: Baranzelli, C. creators_name: Batista e Silva, F. creators_name: Brown, C. creators_name: Butler, A. creators_name: Calvin, K. creators_name: Dendoncker, N. creators_name: Doelman, J.C. creators_name: Dunford, R. creators_name: Engström, K. creators_name: Eitelberg, D. creators_name: Fujimori, S. creators_name: Harrison, P.A. creators_name: Hasegawa, T. creators_name: Havlik, P. creators_name: Holzhauer, S. creators_name: Humpenöder, F. creators_name: Jacobs-Crisioni, C. creators_name: Jain, A.K. creators_name: Krisztin, T. creators_name: Kyle, P. creators_name: Lavalle, C. creators_name: Lenton, T. creators_name: Liu, J. creators_name: Meiyappan, P. creators_name: Popp, A. creators_name: Powell, T. creators_name: Sands, R.D. creators_name: Schaldach, R. creators_name: Stehfest, E. creators_name: Steinbuks, J. creators_name: Tabeau, A. creators_name: van Meijl, H. creators_name: Wise, M.A. creators_name: Rounsevell, M.D.A. creators_id: 8258 creators_id: 8463 creators_id: 1868 creators_id: 2088 creators_orcid: 0000-0001-7897-1796 creators_orcid: 0000-0001-5551-5085 creators_orcid: 0000-0002-9241-8628 title: Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections ispublished: pub divisions: prog_esm abstract: Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies, and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover. date: 2017 date_type: published publisher: Wiley-Blackwell id_number: 10.1111/gcb.13447 creators_browse_id: 2881 creators_browse_id: 1314 creators_browse_id: 119 creators_browse_id: 167 full_text_status: public publication: Global Change Biology volume: 23 pagerange: 767-781 refereed: TRUE issn: 1365-2486 projects: Land use change: assessing the net climate forcing, and options for climate change mitigation and adaptation (LUC4C, FP7 603542) projects: Stimulating Innovation for Global Monitoring of Agriculture and its Impact on the Environment in support of GEOGLAM (SIGMA, FP7 603719) projects: Metrics, Models and Foresight for European Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security (SUSFANS, H2020 633692) coversheets_dirty: FALSE fp7_project: yes fp7_project_id: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/603542/EU//LUC4C; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/603719/EU//SIGMA; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/ 633692/EU//SUSFANS fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article access_rights: info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess citation: Alexander, P., Prestele, R., Verburg, P.H., Arneth, A., Baranzelli, C., Batista e Silva, F., Brown, C., Butler, A., et al. (2017). Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections. Global Change Biology 23 767-781. 10.1111/gcb.13447 . document_url: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13736/1/8075_1_art_file_99201_nz6xy6_convrt.pdf