?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F13744%2F&rft.title=Constrained+mortality+extrapolation+to+old+age%3A+An+empirical%0D%0Aassessment&rft.creator=Ediev%2C+D.&rft.description=The+paper+aims+at+improving+the+accuracy+of+the+extrapolations+of+the+death+rates+into+old+age+by+constraining+the+extrapolation+model+on+presumed+life+expectancy+at+old+age.+Such+a+task+is+particularly+important+in+cases+where+the+data+quality+at+old+age%2C+in+particular+the+age+exaggeration%2C+does+not+allow+for+drawing+reliable+mortality+estimates.+Our+tests+are+based+on+period+data+from+the+Human+Mortality+Database+(HMD+2016).+We+show+strong+improvements+in+the+extrapolation+accuracy+when+constraining+the+extrapolation+on+either+the+empirical+life+expectancy+or+the+Horiuchi-Coale+(1982)+or+Mitra+(1984)+estimates.+Unconstrained+extrapolations+and+those+constrained+by+conventional+life+table+estimates+of+the+life+expectancy+in+the+open+age+interval+show+substantial+biases+and+should+be+avoided.+Combining+extrapolation+with+life+expectancy+estimates+which+are+robust+to+effects+of+the+age+exaggeration+appear+to+be+a+valuable+tool+for+mortality+estimation.&rft.publisher=WP-16-011&rft.date=2016-08-22&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.rights=cc_by&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F13744%2F1%2FWP-16-011.pdf&rft.identifier=++Ediev%2C+D.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F76.html%3E+ORCID%3A+https%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0001-7503-5142+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0001-7503-5142%3E++(2016).++Constrained+mortality+extrapolation+to+old+age%3A+An+empirical+assessment.+++IIASA+Working+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+WP-16-011+++++