eprintid: 13744 rev_number: 32 eprint_status: archive userid: 353 dir: disk0/00/01/37/44 datestamp: 2016-08-22 11:43:32 lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:27:38 status_changed: 2016-08-22 11:43:32 type: monograph metadata_visibility: show item_issues_count: 2 creators_name: Ediev, D. creators_id: 2019 creators_orcid: 0000-0001-7503-5142 corp_creators: Wolfgang Lutz, Program Director World Population title: Constrained mortality extrapolation to old age: An empirical assessment ispublished: pub divisions: prog_pop abstract: The paper aims at improving the accuracy of the extrapolations of the death rates into old age by constraining the extrapolation model on presumed life expectancy at old age. Such a task is particularly important in cases where the data quality at old age, in particular the age exaggeration, does not allow for drawing reliable mortality estimates. Our tests are based on period data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD 2016). We show strong improvements in the extrapolation accuracy when constraining the extrapolation on either the empirical life expectancy or the Horiuchi-Coale (1982) or Mitra (1984) estimates. Unconstrained extrapolations and those constrained by conventional life table estimates of the life expectancy in the open age interval show substantial biases and should be avoided. Combining extrapolation with life expectancy estimates which are robust to effects of the age exaggeration appear to be a valuable tool for mortality estimation. date: 2016-08-22 publisher: WP-16-011 creators_browse_id: 76 full_text_status: public monograph_type: working_paper place_of_pub: IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria projects: Reassessing Ageing from a Population Perspective (RE-AGEING, FP7 323947) coversheets_dirty: FALSE fp7_project: yes fp7_project_id: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/323947/EU/Reassessing Ageing from a Population Perspective/RE-AGEING fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/book access_rights: info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess citation: Ediev, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7503-5142 (2016). Constrained mortality extrapolation to old age: An empirical assessment. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-16-011 document_url: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13744/1/WP-16-011.pdf