RT Journal Article
SR 00
ID 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.08.002
A1 Parkinson, S.
A1 Johnson, N.
A1 Rao, N.
A1 Jones, B.
A1 van Vliet, M.
A1 Fricko, O.
A1 Djilali, N.
A1 Riahi, K.
A1 Flörke, M.
T1 Climate and human development impacts on municipal water demand: A spatially-explicit global modeling framework
JF Environmental Modelling & Software
YR 2016
FD 2016-11
VO 85
SP 266
OP 278
K1 Water demand; Long-term planning; Urbanization; Climate change impacts; Integrated assessment modeling; Downscaling
AB Municipal water systems provide crucial services for human well-being, and will undergo a major transformation this century following global technological, socioeconomic and environmental changes. Future demand scenarios integrating these drivers over multi-decadal planning horizons are needed to develop effective adaptation strategies. This paper presents a new long-term scenario modeling framework that projects future daily municipal water demand at a 1/8° global spatial resolution. The methodology incorporates improved representations of important demand drivers such as urbanization and climate change. The framework is applied across multiple future socioeconomic and climate scenarios to explore municipal water demand uncertainties over the 21st century. The scenario analysis reveals that achieving a low-carbon development pathway can potentially reduce global municipal water demands in 2060 by 2–4%, although the timing and scale of impacts vary significantly with geographic location.
PB Elsevier
SN 1873-6726
LK https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13792/