?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F13796%2F&rft.title=Modelling+SDG+scenarios+for+Educational+Attainment+and%0D%0ADevelopment.+CESDEG%3A+Education+for+all+Global+Monitoring+Report+(EFA-GMR)&rft.creator=Barakat%2C+B.&rft.creator=Bengtsson%2C+S.&rft.creator=Muttarak%2C+R.&rft.creator=Kebede%2C+E.&rft.description=The+scenarios+of+educational+expansion+underlying+the+population+projections+presented+here+result+from+a+further+refinement+of+the+education+model+presented+in+Lutz+et+al.+(2014).+In+summary%2C+we+project+the+share+of+the+population+ever+reaching+or+exceeding+a+given+attainment+level.+This+is+done+seperately+by+country%2C+and+gender%2C+but+with+%E2%80%98shrinkage%E2%80%99+within+a+Bayesian+framework+(with+weakly+informative+priors).+The+mean+expansion+trajectories+are+modelled+as+random+walks+with+drift+(and+potential+mean+reversion)+and+independent+noise+at+a+probit-transformed+scale.+The+trend+parameters+are+estimated+based+on+reconstructed+attainment+histories%2C+and+extrapolated%2C+subject+to+additional+and+some+exogenously+imposed+convergence+within+regions+and+between+females+and+males.+Under+the+target+scenarios%2C+SDG+targets+are+treated+as+%E2%80%98future+data%E2%80%99+(in+other+words%2C+target+trajectories+are+modeled+looking+back+from+2030+under+the+assumption+that+the+target+will+have+been+met)%2C+with+a+potential+trend+break+in+2015.%0D%0A%0D%0ALimitations+shared+with+all+existing+global+projections+of+educational+development+include+the+fact+that+in+the+absence+of+a+detailed+theoretical+basis%2C+they+are+forced+to+rely+heavily+on+statistical+extrapolations.+For+example%2C+there+is+little+consensus+on+whether+%E2%80%9Chigher+education+is+the+new+secondary+education%E2%80%9D+(as+claimed+by+Andreas+Schleicher+of+OECD)%2C+or+is+fundamentally+different+from+lower+levels+of+schooling+(e.g.+in+terms+of+institutional+framework%2C+its+role+in+the+life+cycle%2C+economic+returns.+In+addition%2C+global+projections+can+necessarily+not+account+in+a+satisfactory+manner+for+idiosyncratic+policy+changes+or+shocks.+In+addition%2C+the+specific+modelling+choices+outlined+above+imply+a+number+of+trade-offs.+Using+highest+school+attainment+as+the+underlying+measure+solves+many+problems+associated+with+historic+enrolment+data+by+allowing+the+consistent+reconstruction+of+time+series+of+attainment+from+relatively+recent+cross-sectional+data%2C+but+comes+with+challenges+of+its+own.+While+nevertheless+preferable+overall%2C+the+principal+disadvantage+of+attainment+measures+deserves+mention%2C+namely+the+relatively+long+time+lag+with+which+outcomes+can+be+observed.+Late+attainment+is+common+in+many+developing+countries%2C+so+that+attainment+cannot+safely+be+assumed+to+be+%E2%80%98final%E2%80%99+until+several+years+above+the+typical+graduation+age.&rft.publisher=Wittgenstein+Centre+for+Demography+and+Global+Human+Capital+(IIASA%2C+VID%2F%C3%96AW%2C+WU)&rft.date=2016&rft.type=Other&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F13796%2F2%2F15-148_CESDEG_FINAL%2520REPORT%2520LIT-REVIEW_CoverPage-OSR.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.rights=cc_by&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F13796%2F1%2F15-148_CESDEG_FINAL%2520REPORT%2520PROJECTIONS_CoverPage-OSR.pdf&rft.identifier=++Barakat%2C+B.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F24.html%3E%2C+Bengtsson%2C+S.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F29.html%3E%2C+Muttarak%2C+R.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F213.html%3E+ORCID%3A+https%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0003-0627-4451+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0003-0627-4451%3E%2C+%26+Kebede%2C+E.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F2892.html%3E++(2016).++Modelling+SDG+scenarios+for+Educational+Attainment+and+Development.+CESDEG%3A+Education+for+all+Global+Monitoring+Report+(EFA-GMR).++++Wittgenstein+Centre+for+Demography+and+Global+Human+Capital+(IIASA%2C+VID%2F%C3%96AW%2C+WU)++++++