eprintid: 13814
rev_number: 19
eprint_status: archive
userid: 5
dir: disk0/00/01/38/14
datestamp: 2016-09-19 12:00:16
lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:27:44
status_changed: 2016-09-19 14:08:20
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Nilsson, E.
creators_name: Hochrainer-Stigler, S.
creators_name: Mochizuki, J.
creators_name: Uvo, C.V.
creators_id: 7958
creators_id: 2027
creators_orcid: 0000-0003-1000-4251
title: Hydro-climatic variability and agricultural production on the shores of Lake Chad
ispublished: pub
divisions: prog_risk
divisions: prog_rpv
keywords: Lake Chad; agricultural production; hydro-climatic variability; multivariate regression; time series
abstract: The purpose of this study is to present and analyze previously unpublished quantitative agricultural data for the area on the shores of Lake Chad in Chad, and explore its relations to hydro-climatic factors (lake levels, rainfall and temperature). This is a rural area with livelihoods based on agropastoral and fishing activities, which are directly dependent on the region's high-varying hydro-climate. By using regression analysis on data from 1988-2012 this study was able to establish correlations between the latter and agricultural output. These correlations were used to build multivariate models to explore the predictive capacities of hydro-climatic factors with regards to the agricultural data. The selected models were able to account for considerable proportions of the agricultural dynamics. Some 5 of the 10 multivariate models tested had cross-validated R2s of 0.50 or more. Thus, there were still noteworthy unexplained variations in the agricultural data, which likely stem from technological, behavioral, economic and pest factors that were not explored in this study due do data limitations. Additional studies are called for to build on results presented here and further examine these relationships.
date: 2016-11
date_type: published
publisher: Elsevier
id_number: 10.1016/j.envdev.2016.09.001
creators_browse_id: 126
creators_browse_id: 209
full_text_status: public
publication: Environmental Development
volume: 20
pagerange: 15-30
refereed: TRUE
issn: 2211-4599
coversheets_dirty: FALSE
fp7_project: no
fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
citation:   Nilsson, E., Hochrainer-Stigler, S. <https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/126.html>, Mochizuki, J. <https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/209.html> ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1000-4251 <https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1000-4251>, & Uvo, C.V.  (2016).  Hydro-climatic variability and agricultural production on the shores of Lake Chad.   Environmental Development 20 15-30. 10.1016/j.envdev.2016.09.001 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2016.09.001>.       
document_url: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13814/1/1-s2.0-S2211464516301245-main.pdf