eprintid: 13816
rev_number: 14
eprint_status: archive
userid: 353
dir: disk0/00/01/38/16
datestamp: 2016-09-20 11:05:35
lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:27:45
status_changed: 2016-09-20 11:05:35
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Pugh, T.A.M
creators_name: Müller, C.
creators_name: Elliott, J.
creators_name: Deryng, D.
creators_name: Folberth, C.
creators_name: Olin, S.
creators_name: Schmid, E.
creators_name: Arneth, A.
creators_id: 2033
creators_orcid: 0000-0002-6738-5238
title: Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change
ispublished: pub
divisions: prog_esm
keywords: Climate-change ecology; Climate-change impacts; Ecosystem services; Environmental impact
abstract: Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.
date: 2016-09-20
date_type: published
publisher: NPG
id_number: doi:10.1038/ncomms12608
creators_browse_id: 92
full_text_status: public
publication: Nature Communications
volume: 7
pagerange: e12608
refereed: TRUE
issn: 2041-1723
projects: Land use change: assessing the net climate forcing, and options for climate change mitigation and adaptation (LUC4C, FP7 603542)
coversheets_dirty: FALSE
fp7_project: yes
fp7_project_id: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/603542/EU/Land use change: assessing the net climate forcing, and options for climate change mitigation and adaptation/LUC4C
fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
access_rights: info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
citation:   Pugh, T.A.M, Müller, C., Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Folberth, C. <https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/92.html> ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238 <https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238>, Olin, S., Schmid, E., & Arneth, A.  (2016).  Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change.   Nature Communications 7 e12608. 10.1038/ncomms12608 <https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms12608>.       
document_url: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13816/1/Climate%20analogues%20suggest%20limited%20potential%20for%20intensification%20of%20production%20on%20current%20croplands%20under%20climate%20change.pdf