eprintid: 13880 rev_number: 12 eprint_status: archive userid: 5 dir: disk0/00/01/38/80 datestamp: 2016-10-13 14:30:10 lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:27:52 status_changed: 2016-10-13 14:30:10 type: conference_item metadata_visibility: show item_issues_count: 3 creators_name: Shadkam, S. creators_name: Ludwig, F. creators_name: van Vliet, M.T.H. creators_name: Pastor, A. creators_name: Kabat, P. creators_id: 8718 creators_id: 8728 creators_id: 8843 creators_id: 1953 title: Preserving the World Second Largest Hypersaline Lake Under Future Irrigation and Climate Change ispublished: pub divisions: prog_dir keywords: Urmia Lake, Hypersaline Lake, Climate Change, Irrigation, Reservoirs, Hydrological Model abstract: Iran Urmia Lake, the world second largest hypersaline lake, has been largely desiccated over the last two decades resulting in socio-environmental consequences similar or even larger than the Aral Sea disaster. To rescue the lake a new water management plan has been proposed, a rapid 40% decline in irrigation water use replacing a former plan which intended to develop reservoirs and irrigation. However, none of these water management plans, which have large socio-economic impacts, have been assessed under future changes in climate and water availability. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was forced with bias corrected climate model outputs for both the lowest (RCP2.6) and highest (RCP8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios to estimate future water availability and impacts of water management strategies. Results showed a 10% decline in future water availability in the basin under RCP2.6 and 27% under RCP8.5. Our results showed that if future climate change is highly limited (RCP2.6) inflow can be just enough to meet the lake requirements by implementing the reduction irrigation plan. However, under more rapid climate change scenario (RCP8.5) reducing irrigation water use will not be enough to save the lake and more drastic measures are needed. Our results showed that future water management plans are not robust under climate change in this region. Therefore, an integrated approach of future land-water use planning and climate change adaptation is therefore needed to improve future water security and to reduce the desiccating of this hypersaline lake. date: 2016-10 date_type: published iiasa_bibref: Proceedings of Extended Abstracts creators_browse_id: 2829 creators_browse_id: 350 creators_browse_id: 226 creators_browse_id: 141 full_text_status: public pres_type: paper pagerange: 357-360 event_title: IDRiM 2016 7th International Conference on Integrated Disaster Risk Management Disasters and Development: Towards a Risk Aware Society event_location: Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran event_dates: October 1-3, 2016 event_type: conference refereed: TRUE coversheets_dirty: FALSE fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject citation: Shadkam, S. , Ludwig, F., van Vliet, M.T.H. , Pastor, A. , & Kabat, P. (2016). Preserving the World Second Largest Hypersaline Lake Under Future Irrigation and Climate Change. In: IDRiM 2016 7th International Conference on Integrated Disaster Risk Management Disasters and Development: Towards a Risk Aware Society, October 1-3, 2016, Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran. document_url: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13880/1/Preserving%20theWorld.pdf