eprintid: 13913
rev_number: 14
eprint_status: archive
userid: 5
dir: disk0/00/01/39/13
datestamp: 2016-11-03 08:28:48
lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:41:37
status_changed: 2016-11-03 08:28:48
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
item_issues_count: 0
creators_name: van der Ploeg, F.
creators_name: Rezai, A.
creators_id: 8648
title: Cumulative emissions, unburnable fossil fuel, and the optimal carbon tax
ispublished: pub
divisions: prog_esm
keywords: Energy transition; Optimal carbon tax; Unburnable fossil fuel; Cumulative emissions; Oxford carbon cycle; Trend growth
abstract: A stylised analytical framework is used to show how the global carbon tax and the amount of untapped fossil fuel can be calculated from a simple rule given estimates of society's rate of time impatience and intergenerational inequality aversion, the extraction cost technology, the rate of technical progress in renewable energy and the future trend rate of economic growth. The predictions of the simple framework are tested in a calibrated numerical and more complex version of the integrated assessment model (IAM). This IAM makes use of the Oxford carbon cycle of Allen et al. (2009), which differs from DICE, FUND and PAGE in that cumulative emissions are the key driving force of changes in temperature. We highlight the importance of the speed and direction of technological change for the energy transition and how time impatience, intergenerational inequality aversion and expected trend growth affect the time paths of the optimal global carbon tax and the optimal amount of fossil fuel reserves to leave untapped. We also compare these with the adverse global warming trajectories that occur if no policy actions are taken.
date: 2017-03
date_type: published
publisher: Elsevier
id_number: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.10.016
creators_browse_id: 248
full_text_status: public
publication: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
volume: 116
pagerange: 216
refereed: TRUE
issn: 1873-5509
projects: COMBATING CLIMATE CHANGE: Political economy of Green Paradoxes (GP, FP7 269788)
coversheets_dirty: FALSE
fp7_project: yes
fp7_project_id: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/269788/EU/COMBATING CLIMATE CHANGE: Political economy of Green Paradoxes/GP
fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
access_rights: info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
citation:   van der Ploeg, F. & Rezai, A. <https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/248.html>  (2017).  Cumulative emissions, unburnable fossil fuel, and the optimal carbon tax.   Technological Forecasting and Social Change 116 p. 216. 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.10.016 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.10.016>.       
document_url: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13913/1/1-s2.0-S0040162516304772-main.pdf