eprintid: 13986 rev_number: 7 eprint_status: archive userid: 353 dir: disk0/00/01/39/86 datestamp: 2016-11-24 18:34:52 lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:28:05 status_changed: 2016-11-24 18:34:52 type: article metadata_visibility: show item_issues_count: 1 creators_name: Liu, B. creators_name: Asseng, S. creators_name: Müller, C. creators_name: Ewert, F. creators_name: Elliott, J. creators_name: Lobell, D.B. creators_name: Martre, P. creators_name: Ruane, A.C. creators_name: Wallach, D. creators_name: Jones, J.W. creators_name: Rosenzweig, C. creators_name: Aggarwal, P.K. creators_name: Alderman, P.D. creators_name: Anothai, J. creators_name: Basso, B. creators_name: Biernath, C. creators_name: Cammarano, D. creators_name: Challinor, A. creators_name: Deryng, D. creators_name: Sanctis, G. creators_name: Doltra, J. creators_name: Fereres, E. creators_name: Folberth, C. creators_name: Garcia-Vila, M. creators_name: Gayler, S. creators_name: Hoogenboom, G. creators_name: Hunt, L.A. creators_name: Izaurralde, R.C. creators_name: Jabloun, M. creators_name: Jones, C.D. creators_name: Kersebaum, K.C. creators_name: Kimball, B.A. creators_name: Koehler, A.-K. creators_name: Kumar, S.N. creators_name: Nendel, C. creators_name: O’Leary, G.J. creators_name: Olesen, J.E. creators_name: Ottman, M.J. creators_name: Palosuo, T. creators_name: Prasad, P.V.V. creators_name: Priesack, E. creators_name: Pugh, T.A.M. creators_name: Reynolds, M. creators_name: Rezaei, E.E. creators_name: Rötter, R.P. creators_name: Schmid, E. creators_name: Semenov, M.A. creators_name: Shcherbak, I. creators_name: Stehfest, E. creators_name: Stöckle, C.O. creators_name: Stratonovitch, P. creators_name: Streck, T. creators_name: Supit, I. creators_name: Tao, F. creators_name: Thorburn, P. creators_name: Waha, K. creators_name: Wall, G.W. creators_name: Wang, E. creators_name: White, J.W. creators_name: Wolf, J. creators_name: Zhao, Z. creators_name: Zhu, Y. creators_id: 2033 creators_orcid: 0000-0002-6738-5238 title: Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods ispublished: pub divisions: prog_esm abstract: The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with di erent methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization e ects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1◦C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from di erent methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to su er more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security. date: 2016-10 date_type: published publisher: Nature id_number: doi:10.1038/nclimate3115 creators_browse_id: 92 full_text_status: none publication: Nature Climate Change volume: 6 number: 12 pagerange: 1130-1136 refereed: TRUE issn: 1758-678X coversheets_dirty: FALSE fp7_project: no fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article citation: Liu, B., Asseng, S., Müller, C., Ewert, F., Elliott, J., Lobell, D.B., Martre, P., Ruane, A.C., et al. (2016). Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. Nature Climate Change 6 (12) 1130-1136. 10.1038/nclimate3115 .