eprintid: 14015 rev_number: 7 eprint_status: archive userid: 5 dir: disk0/00/01/40/15 datestamp: 2016-11-29 14:50:55 lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:28:07 status_changed: 2016-11-29 14:50:55 type: article metadata_visibility: show item_issues_count: 1 creators_name: Wood, E.F. creators_name: Rodríguez-Iturbe, I. creators_id: AL0423 title: A Bayesian approach to analyzing uncertainty among flood frequency models ispublished: pub divisions: prog_wat abstract: The statistical uncertainty resulting from the lack of knowledge of which model represents a given stochastic process is analyzed. This analysis of model uncertainty leads to a composite Bayesian distribution. The composite Bayesian distribution is a linear model of the individual Bayesian probability distributions of the individual models, weighted by the posterior probability that a particular model is the true model. The composite Bayesian probability model accounts for all sources of statistical uncertainty, both parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty. This model is the one that should be used in applied problems of decision analysis, for it best represents the knowledge, or lack of it, to the decision maker about future events of the process. date: 1975-12 date_type: published publisher: Wiley id_number: doi:10.1029/WR011i006p00839 creators_browse_id: 2525 full_text_status: none publication: Water Resources Research volume: 11 number: 6 pagerange: 839-843 refereed: TRUE issn: 00431397 coversheets_dirty: FALSE fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article citation: Wood, E.F. & Rodríguez-Iturbe, I. (1975). A Bayesian approach to analyzing uncertainty among flood frequency models. Water Resources Research 11 (6) 839-843. 10.1029/WR011i006p00839 .