eprintid: 14018 rev_number: 8 eprint_status: archive userid: 5 dir: disk0/00/01/40/18 datestamp: 2016-11-29 14:00:21 lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:28:07 status_changed: 2016-11-29 14:00:21 type: article metadata_visibility: show item_issues_count: 1 creators_name: Wood, E.F. creators_name: Rodríguez-Iturbe, I. creators_id: AL0423 title: Bayesian inference and decision making for extreme hydrologic events ispublished: pub divisions: prog_wat abstract: Hydrologic decision making usually occurs in an uncertain world and should combine inferences about uncertain outcomes with the decision makers’ preferences toward these outcomes. The decisions associated with flood protection are considered in detail where there exists uncertainty in the frequency of future flood discharges. Procedures are developed for analyzing and accounting for both statistical uncertainty of competing flood frequency models and statistical parameter uncertainty for the individual models. Inferences about flood frequency are combined with a decision model for which the decision rule is the maximization of expected monetary benefits. A case study to determine the optimal size of local flood protection by using prior information from a regional regression model, historical data, and realistic flood cost and damage functions is presented. date: 1975-08 date_type: published publisher: Wiley id_number: doi:10.1029/WR011i004p00533 creators_browse_id: 2525 full_text_status: none publication: Water Resources Research volume: 11 number: 4 pagerange: 533-542 refereed: TRUE issn: 00431397 coversheets_dirty: FALSE fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article citation: Wood, E.F. & Rodríguez-Iturbe, I. (1975). Bayesian inference and decision making for extreme hydrologic events. Water Resources Research 11 (4) 533-542. 10.1029/WR011i004p00533 .