eprintid: 14024 rev_number: 17 eprint_status: archive userid: 2 dir: disk0/00/01/40/24 datestamp: 2016-11-30 07:41:52 lastmod: 2023-08-05 05:01:13 status_changed: 2016-11-30 07:41:52 type: article metadata_visibility: show item_issues_count: 1 creators_name: Abel, G. creators_name: Barakat, B. creators_name: KC, S. creators_name: Lutz, W. creators_id: 1966 creators_id: 8377 creators_id: 1808 creators_id: 1124 creators_orcid: 0000-0002-4893-5687 creators_orcid: 0000-0001-7975-8145 title: Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth ispublished: pub divisions: prog_pop keywords: world population, scenarios, Sustainable Development Goals, female education, reproductive health abstract: Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth. date: 2016-11-29 publisher: National Academy of Sciences id_number: 10.1073/pnas.1611386113 creators_browse_id: 3136 creators_browse_id: 24 creators_browse_id: 140 creators_browse_id: 190 full_text_status: public publication: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences volume: 113 number: 50 pagerange: 14294-14299 refereed: TRUE issn: 1091-6490 projects: Forecasting Societies Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change (FUTURESOC, FP7 230195) coversheets_dirty: FALSE fp7_project: yes fp7_project_id: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/230195/Forecasting Societies Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change/FUTURESOC fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article access_rights: info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess citation: Abel, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4893-5687 , Barakat, B. , KC, S. , & Lutz, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145 (2016). Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113 (50) 14294-14299. 10.1073/pnas.1611386113 . document_url: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14024/1/PNAS-2016-Abel-14294-9.pdf