eprintid: 14160 rev_number: 5 eprint_status: archive userid: 5 dir: disk0/00/01/41/60 datestamp: 2016-12-14 14:28:09 lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:41:44 status_changed: 2016-12-14 14:28:09 type: article metadata_visibility: show item_issues_count: 1 creators_name: Keyfitz, N. creators_id: AL0190 title: Experiments in the projection of mortality ispublished: pub divisions: prog_pop abstract: How fast will mortality fall in the decades ahead? One way of phrasing the question is in terms of past periods: will it be as fast as Canada showed in 1976-81, or only as fast as the average 1921-81, or as slow as 1926-31?...I will argue that the whole matter of projecting mortality comes down to deciding what past period describes the future.... The author concludes that any of several methods could be used, including the Brass method, but that "no trend calculation, or regression on economic variables, seems able to forecast the future, that is to [accurately account for such events as] technical advance...and new fashions in behaviour." Life tables for Canada concerning the period 1920-1982 are used as illustrations. date: 1991 date_type: published publisher: Canadian Population Society official_url: https://ejournals.library.ualberta.ca/index.php/csp/article/view/15757/12562 creators_browse_id: 2026 full_text_status: none publication: Canadian Studies in Population volume: 18 number: 2 pagerange: 1-17 refereed: TRUE issn: 1927-629X coversheets_dirty: FALSE fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article citation: Keyfitz, N. (1991). Experiments in the projection of mortality. Canadian Studies in Population 18 (2) 1-17.