?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F14164%2F&rft.title=The+Formal+Demography+of+Prospective+Age%3A+The+Relationship+Between+the+Old-Age+Dependency+Ratio+and+the+Prospective+Old-Age+Dependency+Ratio&rft.creator=Ediev%2C+D.&rft.creator=Sanderson%2C+W.&rft.creator=Scherbov%2C+S&rft.description=BACKGROUND%0D%0ASanderson+and+Scherbov+(2015)+demonstrated+that+there+was+an+inverse+relation+between+the+speeds+of+aging+as+measured+by+the+conventional+and+the+prospective+old-age+dependency+ratios.%0D%0A%0D%0AOBJECTIVE+and+METHODS%0D%0AHere%2C+we+examine+this+counterintuitive+finding+analytically+and+with+simulations.+To+this+end%2C+we+decompose+changes+in+mortality+schedules+into+shift+and+compression+processes.+After+studying+the+effects+of+these+two+processes+on+the+dependency+ratios+analytically%2C+we+examine+the+effects+empirically%2C+using+the+HMD+data.%0D%0A%0D%0ARESULTS%0D%0ATheory+shows+that+the+two+mortality+processes+(of+shift+and+compression)+push+the+two+old-age+dependency+ratios+in+opposite+directions.+Our+formal+results+are+supported+by+simulations+that+show+a+positive+effect+of+a+mortality+shift+on+the+conventional+old-age+dependency+ratio+and+a+negative+effect+of+it+on+the+prospective+old-age+dependency+ratio.+The+effects+are+of+opposite+sign+for+the+mortality+compression.+The+analytical+and+empirical+results+also+suggest+the+effect+of+the+shift+is+stronger+than+the+effect+of+compression.+Hence%2C+mortality+declines%2C+typically%2C+imply+increasing+conventional+but+decreasing+prospective+old-age+dependency+ratios.%0D%0A%0D%0ACONCLUSIONS%0D%0AOur+formal+and+empirical+results+taken+together+they+suggest+that+the+inverse+relation+between+the+conventional+and+prospective+old-age+dependency+ratios+is+a+universal+feature+of+human+mortality+change.%0D%0A%0D%0ACONTRIBUTION%0D%0AThis+paper+contributes+to+the+literature+on+formal+demographic+analysis%2C+particularly+on+the+effects+of+mortality+shifts+and+compression+on+dependency+ratios.+It+demonstrates+that+the+counter-intuitive+finding+in+Sanderson+and+Scherbov+(2015)+is+a+fundamental+feature+of+human+mortality+change.+We+also+contribute+in+showing+usefulness+of+the+shift-compression+decomposition+model+of+mortality+change+developed+in+(Dalkhat+M.+Ediev+2013).&rft.publisher=WP-16-024&rft.date=2016-12-15&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.rights=cc_by&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F14164%2F1%2FWP-16-024.pdf&rft.identifier=++Ediev%2C+D.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F76.html%3E+ORCID%3A+https%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0001-7503-5142+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0001-7503-5142%3E%2C+Sanderson%2C+W.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F265.html%3E%2C+%26+Scherbov%2C+S+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F270.html%3E+ORCID%3A+https%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0002-0881-1073+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0002-0881-1073%3E++(2016).++The+Formal+Demography+of+Prospective+Age%3A+The+Relationship+Between+the+Old-Age+Dependency+Ratio+and+the+Prospective+Old-Age+Dependency+Ratio.+++IIASA+Working+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+WP-16-024+++++