eprintid: 14257 rev_number: 15 eprint_status: archive userid: 353 dir: disk0/00/01/42/57 datestamp: 2017-01-17 07:26:58 lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:28:25 status_changed: 2017-01-17 07:26:58 type: article metadata_visibility: show item_issues_count: 1 creators_name: Marangoni, G. creators_name: Tavoni, M. creators_name: Bosetti, V. creators_name: Borgonovo, E. creators_name: Capros, P. creators_name: Fricko, O. creators_name: Gernaat, D. E. H. J. creators_name: Guivarch, C. creators_name: Havlik, P. creators_name: Huppmann, D. creators_name: Johnson, N. creators_name: Karkatsoulis, P. creators_name: Keppo, I. creators_name: Krey, V. creators_name: Ó Broin, E. creators_name: Price, J. creators_name: van Vuuren, D. P. creators_id: 2004 creators_id: 1868 creators_id: 2107 creators_id: 1970 creators_id: 8099 creators_orcid: 0000-0002-6835-9883 creators_orcid: 0000-0001-5551-5085 creators_orcid: 0000-0002-7729-7389 creators_orcid: 0000-0003-0307-3515 title: Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways ispublished: pub divisions: prog_ene divisions: prog_esm keywords: Climate-change mitigation; Socioeconomic scenarios abstract: Scenarios showing future greenhouse gas emissions are needed to estimate climate impacts and the mitigation efforts required for climate stabilization. Recently, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been introduced to describe alternative social, economic and technical narratives, spanning a wide range of plausible futures in terms of challenges to mitigation and adaptation1. Thus far the key drivers of the uncertainty in emissions projections have not been robustly disentangled. Here we assess the sensitivities of future CO2 emissions to key drivers characterizing the SSPs. We use six state-of-the-art integrated assessment models with different structural characteristics, and study the impact of five families of parameters, related to population, income, energy efficiency, fossil fuel availability, and low-carbon energy technology development. A recently developed sensitivity analysis algorithm2 allows us to parsimoniously compute both the direct and interaction effects of each of these drivers on cumulative emissions. The study reveals that the SSP assumptions about energy intensity and economic growth are the most important determinants of future CO2 emissions from energy combustion, both with and without a climate policy. Interaction terms between parameters are shown to be important determinants of the total sensitivities. date: 2017-01 date_type: published publisher: Nature Publishing Group id_number: doi:10.1038/nclimate3199 creators_browse_id: 97 creators_browse_id: 119 creators_browse_id: 130 creators_browse_id: 137 creators_browse_id: 166 full_text_status: none publication: Nature Climate Change volume: 7 number: 2 pagerange: 113-117 refereed: TRUE issn: 1758-678X coversheets_dirty: FALSE fp7_project: no fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article citation: Marangoni, G., Tavoni, M., Bosetti, V., Borgonovo, E., Capros, P., Fricko, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6835-9883 , Gernaat, D. E. H. J., Guivarch, C., et al. (2017). Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Nature Climate Change 7 (2) 113-117. 10.1038/nclimate3199 .