eprintid: 14258 rev_number: 13 eprint_status: archive userid: 353 dir: disk0/00/01/42/58 datestamp: 2017-01-17 07:35:32 lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:28:25 status_changed: 2017-01-17 07:35:32 type: article metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Gambhir, A. creators_name: Drouet, L. creators_name: McCollum, D. creators_name: Napp, T. creators_name: Bernie, D. creators_name: Hawkes, A. creators_name: Fricko, O. creators_name: Havlik, P. creators_name: Riahi, K. creators_name: Bosetti, V. creators_name: Lowe, J. creators_id: 8484 creators_id: 2004 creators_id: 1868 creators_id: 1696 creators_orcid: 0000-0002-6835-9883 creators_orcid: 0000-0001-5551-5085 creators_orcid: 0000-0001-7193-3498 title: Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios ispublished: pub divisions: prog_ene divisions: prog_esm keywords: climate change mitigation; low-carbon scenarios; mitigation feasibility abstract: This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals to limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison of three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH) harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using one of the new shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2), to analyse multiple mitigation scenarios aimed at different temperature changes in 2100, in order to assess the model outputs against a range of indicators developed so as to systematically compare the feasibility across scenarios. These indicators include mitigation costs and carbon prices, rates of emissions reductions and energy efficiency improvements, rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies, reliance on negative emissions, and stranding of power generation assets. The results highlight how much more challenging the 2 °C goal is, when compared to the 2.5–4 °C goals, across virtually all measures of feasibility. Any delay in mitigation or limitation in technology options also renders the 2 °C goal much less feasible across the economic and technical dimensions explored. Finally, a sensitivity analysis indicates that aiming for less than 2 °C is even less plausible, with significantly higher mitigation costs and faster carbon price increases, significantly faster decarbonization and zero-carbon technology deployment rates, earlier occurrence of very significant carbon capture and earlier onset of global net negative emissions. Such a systematic analysis allows a more in-depth consideration of what realistic level of long-term temperature changes can be achieved and what adaptation strategies are therefore required. date: 2017-01-13 date_type: published publisher: Molecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI) id_number: doi:10.3390/en10010089 creators_browse_id: 203 creators_browse_id: 97 creators_browse_id: 119 creators_browse_id: 250 full_text_status: public publication: Energies volume: 10 number: 1 pagerange: e89 refereed: TRUE issn: 1996-1073 coversheets_dirty: FALSE fp7_project: no fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article citation: Gambhir, A., Drouet, L., McCollum, D. , Napp, T., Bernie, D., Hawkes, A., Fricko, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6835-9883 , Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085 , et al. (2017). Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios. Energies 10 (1) e89. 10.3390/en10010089 . document_url: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14258/1/Assessing%20the%20Feasibility%20of%20Global%20Long-Term%20Mitigation%20Scenarios.pdf