TY  - CHAP
CY  - Netherlands
ID  - iiasa14262
UR  - https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14262/
A1  - Murphy, A.H.
A1  - Winkler, R.L.
N2  - Three experiments in subjective probability forecasting were designed, and these experiments were conducted in four forecast offices of the U.S. National Weather Service. The first experiment involved credible interval temperature forecasts, the second experiment involved point and area precipitation probability forecasts, and the third experiment involved the effect of guidance forecasts on precipitation probability forecasts. In each case, some background material is presented; the design of the experiment is discussed; some preliminary results of the experiment are presented; and some implications of the experiment and the results for probability forecasting in general and probability forecasting in meteorology in particular are discussed.
ED  - Wendt, Dirk
ED  - Vlek, Charles
TI  - Subjective Probability Forecasting: Some Real World Experiments
AV  - none
EP  - 198
N1  - Selected Proceedings of an Interdisciplinary Research Conference, Rome, 3?6 September, 1973
Y1  - 1975///
PB  - Springer
T3  - Theory and Decision Library
SN  - 978-94-010-1834-0
SP  - 177
T2  - Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making
ER  -