RT Book, Section
SR 00
ID 10.1007/978-94-010-1834-0_10
A1 Murphy, A.H.
A1 Winkler, R.L.
T1 Subjective Probability Forecasting: Some Real World Experiments
YR 1975
FD 1975
SP 177
OP 198
AB Three experiments in subjective probability forecasting were designed, and these experiments were conducted in four forecast offices of the U.S. National Weather Service. The first experiment involved credible interval temperature forecasts, the second experiment involved point and area precipitation probability forecasts, and the third experiment involved the effect of guidance forecasts on precipitation probability forecasts. In each case, some background material is presented; the design of the experiment is discussed; some preliminary results of the experiment are presented; and some implications of the experiment and the results for probability forecasting in general and probability forecasting in meteorology in particular are discussed.
NO Selected Proceedings of an Interdisciplinary Research Conference, Rome, 3–6 September, 1973
A2 Wendt, Dirk
A2 Vlek, Charles
T2 Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making
ED 11
PB Springer
PP Netherlands
T3 Theory and Decision Library
SN 978-94-010-1834-0
AV Published
LK https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14262/