eprintid: 14262
rev_number: 6
eprint_status: archive
userid: 5
dir: disk0/00/01/42/62
datestamp: 2017-01-17 09:49:49
lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:41:47
status_changed: 2017-01-17 09:49:49
type: book_section
metadata_visibility: show
item_issues_count: 1
creators_name: Murphy, A.H.
creators_name: Winkler, R.L.
creators_id: AL0279
creators_id: AL0421
title: Subjective Probability Forecasting: Some Real World Experiments
ispublished: pub
divisions: prog_enp
note: Selected Proceedings of an Interdisciplinary Research Conference, Rome, 3–6 September, 1973
abstract: Three experiments in subjective probability forecasting were designed, and these experiments were conducted in four forecast offices of the U.S. National Weather Service. The first experiment involved credible interval temperature forecasts, the second experiment involved point and area precipitation probability forecasts, and the third experiment involved the effect of guidance forecasts on precipitation probability forecasts. In each case, some background material is presented; the design of the experiment is discussed; some preliminary results of the experiment are presented; and some implications of the experiment and the results for probability forecasting in general and probability forecasting in meteorology in particular are discussed.
date: 1975
date_type: published
publisher: Springer
id_number: 10.1007/978-94-010-1834-0_10
creators_browse_id: 2216
creators_browse_id: 2520
full_text_status: none
series: Theory and Decision Library
number: 11
place_of_pub: Netherlands
pagerange: 177-198
refereed: TRUE
isbn: 978-94-010-1834-0
book_title: Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making
editors_name: Wendt, Dirk
editors_name: Vlek, Charles
coversheets_dirty: FALSE
fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPart
citation:   Murphy, A.H. <https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/2216.html> & Winkler, R.L. <https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/2520.html>  (1975).  Subjective Probability Forecasting: Some Real World Experiments.    In:  Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making. Eds. Wendt, Dirk & Vlek, Charles, pp. 177-198 Netherlands: Springer.  ISBN 978-94-010-1834-0 10.1007/978-94-010-1834-0_10 <https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-1834-0_10>.