eprintid: 14275 rev_number: 25 eprint_status: archive userid: 2 dir: disk0/00/01/42/75 datestamp: 2017-01-19 13:36:59 lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:28:27 status_changed: 2017-01-19 13:36:59 type: article metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Schauberger, B. creators_name: Archontoulis, S. creators_name: Arneth, A. creators_name: Balkovic, J. creators_name: Ciais, P. creators_name: Deryng, D. creators_name: Eliott, J. creators_name: Folberth, C. creators_name: Khabarov, N. creators_name: Müller, C. creators_name: Pugh, T.A.M. creators_name: Rolinski, F. creators_name: Schaphoff, S. creators_name: Schmid, E. creators_name: Wang, X. creators_name: Schlenker, W. creators_name: Frieler, K. creators_id: 1977 creators_id: 2033 creators_id: 1850 creators_orcid: 0000-0003-2955-4931 creators_orcid: 0000-0002-6738-5238 creators_orcid: 0000-0001-5372-4668 title: Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models ispublished: pub divisions: prog_esm keywords: Agroecology, Agriculture, Climate change impacts abstract: High temperatures are detrimental to crop yields and could lead to global warming-driven reductions in agricultural productivity. To assess future threats, the majority of studies used process-based crop models, but their ability to represent effects of high temperature has been questioned. Here we show that an ensemble of nine crop models reproduces the observed average temperature responses of US maize, soybean and wheat yields. Each day >30 °C diminishes maize and soybean yields by up to 6% under rainfed conditions. Declines observed in irrigated areas, or simulated assuming full irrigation, are weak. This supports the hypothesis that water stress induced by high temperatures causes the decline. For wheat a negative response to high temperature is neither observed nor simulated under historical conditions, since critical temperatures are rarely exceeded during the growing season. In the future, yields are modelled to decline for all three crops at temperatures >30 °C. Elevated CO2 can only weakly reduce these yield losses, in contrast to irrigation. date: 2017 publisher: NPG id_number: doi:10.1038/ncomms13931 creators_browse_id: 23 creators_browse_id: 92 creators_browse_id: 151 full_text_status: public publication: Nature Communications volume: 8 pagerange: art.no.13931 refereed: TRUE issn: 2041-1723 projects: High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX, FP7 603864) projects: Land use change: assessing the net climate forcing, and options for climate change mitigation and adaptation (LUC4C, FP7 603542) coversheets_dirty: FALSE fp7_project: yes fp7_project_id: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/603864/EU/High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes/HELIX; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/603542/EU/Land use change: assessing the net climate forcing, and options for climate change mitigation and adaptation/LUC4C fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article access_rights: info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess citation: Schauberger, B., Archontoulis, S., Arneth, A., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931 , Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Eliott, J., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238 , et al. (2017). Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models. Nature Communications 8 art.no.13931. 10.1038/ncomms13931 . document_url: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14275/1/ncomms13931.pdf document_url: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14275/2/ncomms13931-s1.pdf