eprintid: 14356 rev_number: 25 eprint_status: archive userid: 353 dir: disk0/00/01/43/56 datestamp: 2017-02-01 07:56:25 lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:28:30 status_changed: 2017-02-01 07:56:25 type: article metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Walsh, B. creators_name: Ciais, P. creators_name: Janssens, I.A. creators_name: Penuelas, J. creators_name: Riahi, K. creators_name: Rydzak, F. creators_name: van Vuuren, D.P. creators_name: Obersteiner, M. creators_id: 8806 creators_id: 1696 creators_id: 8294 creators_id: 7255 creators_orcid: 0000-0003-1689-2309 creators_orcid: 0000-0001-7193-3498 creators_orcid: 0000-0001-6981-2769 title: Pathways for balancing CO2 emissions and sinks ispublished: pub divisions: prog_esm abstract: In December 2015 in Paris, leaders committed to achieve global, net decarbonization of human activities before 2100. This achievement would halt and even reverse anthropogenic climate change through the net removal of carbon from the atmosphere. However, the Paris documents contain few specific prescriptions for emissions mitigation, leaving various countries to pursue their own agendas. In this analysis, we project energy and land use emissions mitigation pathways through 2100, subject to best-available parameterization of carbon-climate feedbacks and interdependencies. We find that, barring unforeseen and transformative technological advancement, anthropogenic emissions need to peak within the next ten years in order to maintain realistic pathways to meeting the COP21 emissions and warming targets. Fossil fuel consumption will likely need to be reduced below a quarter of primary energy supply by 2100, and the allowable consumption rate drops even further if negative emissions technologies remain technologically or economically unfeasible at global scale. date: 2017 date_type: published publisher: NPG id_number: 10.1038/ncomms14856 creators_browse_id: 322 creators_browse_id: 250 creators_browse_id: 261 creators_browse_id: 219 full_text_status: public publication: Nature Communications volume: 8 pagerange: e14856 refereed: TRUE issn: 2041-1723 projects: Effects of phosphorus limitations on Life, Earth system and Society (IMBALANCE-P, FP7 610028) coversheets_dirty: FALSE fp7_project: yes fp7_project_id: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/610028/EU/Effects of phosphorus limitations on Life, Earth system and Society/IMBALANCE-P fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article access_rights: info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess citation: Walsh, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1689-2309 , Ciais, P., Janssens, I.A., Penuelas, J., Riahi, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498 , Rydzak, F. , van Vuuren, D.P., & Obersteiner, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6981-2769 (2017). Pathways for balancing CO2 emissions and sinks. Nature Communications 8 e14856. 10.1038/ncomms14856 . document_url: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14356/1/10.1038%40ncomms14856.pdf