eprintid: 14368
rev_number: 12
eprint_status: archive
userid: 353
dir: disk0/00/01/43/68
datestamp: 2017-02-03 12:07:32
lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:28:32
status_changed: 2017-02-03 12:07:32
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Rinaldi, S.
creators_name: Della Rossa, F.
creators_id: 7286
title: Conflicts among N armed groups: Scenarios from a new descriptive model
ispublished: pub
divisions: prog_eep
keywords: mathematical modeling; social systems; conflicts; terrorism; bifurcations; chaos
abstract: In this paper we propose and analyze a new descriptive model of armed conflicts among N groups. The model is composed of N2 ordinary differential equations, with 3(N2+N) constant parameters that describe military characteristics and recruitment policies, ranging from pure defensivism to pure fanaticism. The results are only preliminary, but point out interesting (though not very surprising) properties: periodic coexistence is possible, and multiple attractors can exist; governmental groups cannot go extinct if they are highly defensivist, and rebels cannot be eradicated if they are highly fanatic. Shocks due to interventions of short duration of an external army can stabilize/destabilize the system and/or eradicate some group, and the same holds true for small structural changes. Other more subtle questions concerning, for example, the existence of chaotic regimes and the systematic evaluation of the role of strategic factors like power, intelligence, and fanaticism, remain open and require further research.
date: 2018-04
date_type: published
publisher: Springer-Verlag
id_number: 10.1007/s11071-017-3446-9
creators_browse_id: 253
full_text_status: public
publication: Nonlinear Dynamics
volume: 92
number: 1
pagerange: 3-12
refereed: FALSE
issn: 0924-090X
coversheets_dirty: FALSE
fp7_project: no
fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
citation:   Rinaldi, S. <https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/253.html> & Della Rossa, F.  (2018).  Conflicts among N armed groups: Scenarios from a new descriptive model.   Nonlinear Dynamics 92 (1) 3-12. 10.1007/s11071-017-3446-9 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-017-3446-9>.       
document_url: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14368/1/nonlinear.pdf