IIASA RepositoryA Scalable Approach to Modelling Health Impacts of Air Pollution Based on Globally Available DataG.KiesewetterauthorW.SchöppauthorM.AmannauthorIntegrated assessment of air pollution and its impacts typically requires pre-calculated atmospheric transfer relations on a fine spatial resolution. While such concepts have been applied successfully for Europe and other regions with high data coverage, extending calculations to world regions with low local data availability is challenging and needs to be based on globally available data sets. Here we introduce a scalable approach which has been developed to expand the calculations of health impacts from exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model to (almost) any desired region on the globe, depending on actual requirements for policy analysis. We use global sensitivity simulations of the EMEP atmospheric chemistry transport model to derive linear transfer coefficients at a resolution of 0.5 degrees. A major challenge lies in the realistic representation of inner urban PM2.5 concentrations, which depend to a large extent on local pollution sources on scales below grid resolution. We derive sub-grid concentration increments from emission densities of primary PM from low-level sources, based on (almost) globally available gridded population data with approximately 100m resolution. From ambient PM2.5 concentrations, increased risk of mortality is then calculated following the methodology of the Global Burden of Disease studies. We have implemented and validated the described approach for India, China, and Indonesia, with extensions to other G-20 member countries underway. Health impact projections under different energy policy scenarios are discussed. Due to the inherent treatment of urban areas, the effects of urbanization trends are captured explicitly, which lead to higher average population exposure as people move into polluted cities.2016-07Conference or Workshop Item

For work being deposited by its own author: In self-archiving this collection of files and associated bibliographic metadata, I grant IIASA Repository the right to store them and to make them permanently available publicly for free on-line. I declare that this material is my own intellectual property and I understand that IIASA Repository does not assume any responsibility if there is any breach of copyright in distributing these files or metadata. (All authors are urged to prominently assert their copyright on the title page of their work.)

For work being deposited by someone other than its author: I hereby declare that the collection of files and associated bibliographic metadata that I am archiving at IIASA Repository) is in the public domain. If this is not the case, I accept full responsibility for any breach of copyright that distributing these files or metadata may entail.

Clicking on the deposit button indicates your agreement to these terms.