eprintid: 14395
rev_number: 18
eprint_status: archive
userid: 2
dir: disk0/00/01/43/95
datestamp: 2017-03-01 08:36:01
lastmod: 2023-08-05 05:01:13
status_changed: 2017-03-01 08:44:56
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
item_issues_count: 0
creators_name: Lutz, W.
creators_name: Muttarak, R.
creators_id: 1124
creators_id: 1959
creators_orcid: 0000-0001-7975-8145
creators_orcid: 0000-0003-0627-4451
title: Forecasting societies’ adaptive capacities through demographic metabolism model
ispublished: pub
divisions: prog_pop
abstract: In seeking to understand how future societies will be affected by climate change we cannot simply assume they will be identical to those of today, because climate and societies are both dynamic. Here we propose that the concept of demographic metabolism and the associated methods of multi-dimensional population projections provide an effective analytical toolbox to forecast important aspects of societal change that affect adaptive capacity. We present an example of how the changing educational composition of future populations can influence societies' adaptive capacity. Multi-dimensional population projections form the human core of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios, and knowledge and analytical tools from demography have great value in assessing the likely implications of climate change on future human well-being.
date: 2017-03-02
publisher: Nature Publishing Group
id_number: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3222
creators_browse_id: 190
creators_browse_id: 213
full_text_status: public
publication: Nature Climate Change
volume: 7
number: 3
pagerange: 177-184
refereed: TRUE
issn: 1758-678X
projects: Forecasting Societies Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change (FUTURESOC, FP7 230195)
coversheets_dirty: FALSE
fp7_project: yes
fp7_project_id: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/230195/Forecasting Societies Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change/FUTURESOC
fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
access_rights: info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
citation:   Lutz, W. <https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/190.html> ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145 <https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145> & Muttarak, R. <https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/213.html> ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0627-4451 <https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0627-4451>  (2017).  Forecasting societies’ adaptive capacities through demographic metabolism model.   Nature Climate Change 7 (3) 177-184. 10.1038/NCLIMATE3222 <https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3222>.       
document_url: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14395/1/NCLIM-15071137_copy%20edited%20version.pdf