"14425","14","archive","353",,,"disk0/00/01/44/25","2017-03-06 09:18:45","2021-08-27 17:28:38","2017-03-06 09:18:45","conference_item",,,"show","","","1",,,"Shchekinova","E.","","","2127",,"",,,,,"","","Anticipating Recessions using Inclination Analysis","pub","","","prog_asa",,,"Recessions are economic downturns that can be recognized from macro-indicators such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Federal Reserve Interest Rate (FRIR). To provide early-warning signals of recessions and similar systemic transitions, here we propose a new approach based on pattern recognition, called inclination analysis [1, 2]. For this purpose, we develop a stochastic model based on time-series analysis to assess the probability of a recession to occur at a given moment in the past, present, or future. Calibrating our model to data proceeds in three steps, involving the coarse-graining of the available input time series, the identification of short series motifs that foreshadow recessions, and the optimization of key model parameters according to the model’s desired forecasting horizon.","2017-02-27","published",,,,,,,,"",,,,,"",,,,,"",,,,,"","",,"",,,,,,,"2830","public",,"poster",,,,,,,,"IIASA Institutional Evaluation 2017","IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria","27 February-1 March 2017","other",,,,,,"FALSE",,,,,,,,"","","","",,"","",,,,,,,"",,,,,"FALSE","no",,"info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject",
"14425",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Puchkova","A.","","","8625",,,,,,,,,,,,,"prog_eep",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"1522",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"14425",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Rovenskaya","E.","","","8206","0000-0002-2761-3443",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"260",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"14425",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Dieckmann","U.","","","1668","0000-0001-7089-0393",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"66",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,