<> "The repository administrator has not yet configured an RDF license."^^ . <> . . . "Anticipating Recessions using Inclination Analysis"^^ . "Recessions are economic downturns that can be recognized from macro-indicators such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Federal Reserve Interest Rate (FRIR). To provide early-warning signals of recessions and similar systemic transitions, here we propose a new approach based on pattern recognition, called inclination analysis [1, 2]. For this purpose, we develop a stochastic model based on time-series analysis to assess the probability of a recession to occur at a given moment in the past, present, or future. Calibrating our model to data proceeds in three steps, involving the coarse-graining of the available input time series, the identification of short series motifs that foreshadow recessions, and the optimization of key model parameters according to the model’s desired forecasting horizon."^^ . "2017-02-27" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "E."^^ . "Rovenskaya"^^ . "E. Rovenskaya"^^ . . "A."^^ . "Puchkova"^^ . "A. Puchkova"^^ . . "U."^^ . "Dieckmann"^^ . "U. Dieckmann"^^ . . "E."^^ . "Shchekinova"^^ . "E. Shchekinova"^^ . . . . "IIASA Institutional Evaluation 2017"^^ . . . . . "IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria"^^ . . . . . . "Anticipating Recessions using Inclination Analysis (Text)"^^ . . . . . . "PosterEEP_Shchekinova.pdf"^^ . . . "Anticipating Recessions using Inclination Analysis (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "lightbox.jpg"^^ . . . "Anticipating Recessions using Inclination Analysis (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "preview.jpg"^^ . . . "Anticipating Recessions using Inclination Analysis (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "medium.jpg"^^ . . . "Anticipating Recessions using Inclination Analysis (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "small.jpg"^^ . . . "Anticipating Recessions using Inclination Analysis (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "indexcodes.txt"^^ . . "HTML Summary of #14425 \n\nAnticipating Recessions using Inclination Analysis\n\n" . "text/html" . .