eprintid: 14425
rev_number: 14
eprint_status: archive
userid: 353
dir: disk0/00/01/44/25
datestamp: 2017-03-06 09:18:45
lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:28:38
status_changed: 2017-03-06 09:18:45
type: conference_item
metadata_visibility: show
item_issues_count: 1
creators_name: Shchekinova, E.
creators_name: Puchkova, A.
creators_name: Rovenskaya, E.
creators_name: Dieckmann, U.
creators_id: 2127
creators_id: 8625
creators_id: 8206
creators_id: 1668
creators_orcid: 0000-0002-2761-3443
creators_orcid: 0000-0001-7089-0393
title: Anticipating Recessions using Inclination Analysis
ispublished: pub
divisions: prog_asa
divisions: prog_eep
abstract: Recessions are economic downturns that can be recognized from macro-indicators such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Federal Reserve Interest Rate (FRIR). To provide early-warning signals of recessions and similar systemic transitions, here we propose a new approach based on pattern recognition, called inclination analysis [1, 2]. For this purpose, we develop a stochastic model based on time-series analysis to assess the probability of a recession to occur at a given moment in the past, present, or future. Calibrating our model to data proceeds in three steps, involving the coarse-graining of the available input time series, the identification of short series motifs that foreshadow recessions, and the optimization of key model parameters according to the model’s desired forecasting horizon.
date: 2017-02-27
date_type: published
creators_browse_id: 2830
creators_browse_id: 1522
creators_browse_id: 260
creators_browse_id: 66
full_text_status: public
pres_type: poster
event_title: IIASA Institutional Evaluation 2017
event_location: IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
event_dates: 27 February-1 March 2017
event_type: other
refereed: FALSE
coversheets_dirty: FALSE
fp7_project: no
fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
citation:   Shchekinova, E. <https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/2830.html>, Puchkova, A. <https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/1522.html>, Rovenskaya, E. <https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/260.html> ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2761-3443 <https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2761-3443>, & Dieckmann, U. <https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/66.html> ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7089-0393 <https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7089-0393>  (2017).  Anticipating Recessions using Inclination Analysis.   In: IIASA Institutional Evaluation 2017, 27 February-1 March 2017, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.     
document_url: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14425/1/PosterEEP_Shchekinova.pdf