RT Conference Proceedings SR 00 A1 Khabarov, N. A1 Balkovic, J. A1 Schmid, E. A1 Schwartz, A. A1 Azevedo, L. A1 Obersteiner, M. T1 Spatial Analysis of Weather-induced Annual and Decadal Average Yield Variability as Modeled by EPIC for Rain-fed Wheat in Europe YR 2017 FD 27 February-1 March 2017 AB In our analysis we evaluate the accuracy of near-term (decadal) average crop yield assessments as supported by the biophysical crop growth model EPIC. A spatial assessment of averages and variability has clear practical implications for agricultural producers and investors concerned with an estimation of the basic stochastic characteristics of a crop yield distribution. As a reliable weather projection for a time period of several years will apparently remain a challenge in the near future, we have employed the existing gridded datasets on historical weather as a best proxy for the current climate. Based on different weather inputs to EPIC, we analyzed the model runs (as implemented by IIASA and BOKU) for the rain-fed wheat for 1968-2007 employing AgGRID/GGCMIii) simulations that use harmonized inputs and assumptions (weather datasets: GRASP and Princeton). T2 IIASA Institutional Evaluation 2017 ED IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria AV Published LK https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14455/