@article{iiasa14498, volume = {355}, number = {6331}, month = {March}, title = {A roadmap for rapid decarbonization}, publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)}, year = {2017}, journal = {Science}, doi = {10.1126/science.aah3443}, pages = {1269--1271}, url = {https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14498/}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Although the Paris Agreement's goals (1) are aligned with science (2) and can, in principle, be technically and economically achieved (3), alarming inconsistencies remain between science-based targets and national commitments. Despite progress during the 2016 Marrakech climate negotiations, long-term goals can be trumped by political short-termism. Following the Agreement, which became international law earlier than expected, several countries published mid-century decarbonization strategies, with more due soon. Model-based decarbonization assessments (4) and scenarios often struggle to capture transformative change and the dynamics associated with it: disruption, innovation, and nonlinear change in human behavior. For example, in just 2 years, China's coal use swung from 3.7\% growth in 2013 to a decline of 3.7\% in 2015 (5). To harness these dynamics and to calibrate for short-term realpolitik, we propose framing the decarbonization challenge in terms of a global decadal roadmap based on a simple heuristic-a "carbon law"-of halving gross anthropogenic carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions every decade. Complemented by immediately instigated, scalable carbon removal and efforts to ramp down land-use CO2 emissions, this can lead to net-zero emissions around mid-century, a path necessary to limit warming to well below 2oC.}, author = {Rockstr{\"o}m, J. and Gaffney, O. and Rogelj, J. and Meinshausen, M. and Nakicenovic, N. and Schellnhuber, H. J.} }