relation: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14498/
title: A roadmap for rapid decarbonization
creator: Rockström, J.
creator: Gaffney, O.
creator: Rogelj, J.
creator: Meinshausen, M.
creator: Nakicenovic, N.
creator: Schellnhuber, H.J.
description: Although the Paris Agreement's goals (1) are aligned with science (2) and can, in principle, be technically and economically achieved (3), alarming inconsistencies remain between science-based targets and national commitments. Despite progress during the 2016 Marrakech climate negotiations, long-term goals can be trumped by political short-termism. Following the Agreement, which became international law earlier than expected, several countries published mid-century decarbonization strategies, with more due soon. Model-based decarbonization assessments (4) and scenarios often struggle to capture transformative change and the dynamics associated with it: disruption, innovation, and nonlinear change in human behavior. For example, in just 2 years, China's coal use swung from 3.7% growth in 2013 to a decline of 3.7% in 2015 (5). To harness these dynamics and to calibrate for short-term realpolitik, we propose framing the decarbonization challenge in terms of a global decadal roadmap based on a simple heuristic—a “carbon law”—of halving gross anthropogenic carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions every decade. Complemented by immediately instigated, scalable carbon removal and efforts to ramp down land-use CO2 emissions, this can lead to net-zero emissions around mid-century, a path necessary to limit warming to well below 2°C.
publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
date: 2017-03-24
type: Article
type: PeerReviewed
format: text
language: en
rights: cc_by
identifier: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14498/1/Rockstr%C3%B6mEtAl_2017_Science_A%20roadmap%20for%20rapid%20decarbonization.pdf
identifier:   Rockström, J., Gaffney, O., Rogelj, J. <https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/254.html> ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061 <https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061>, Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N. <https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/214.html> ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7176-4604 <https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7176-4604>, & Schellnhuber, H.J.  (2017).  A roadmap for rapid decarbonization.   Science 355 (6331) 1269-1271. 10.1126/science.aah3443 <https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aah3443>.       
relation: 10.1126/science.aah3443
identifier: 10.1126/science.aah3443
doi: 10.1126/science.aah3443