%0 Journal Article
%@ 1095-9203
%A Rockström, J.
%A Gaffney, O.
%A Rogelj, J.
%A Meinshausen, M.
%A Nakicenovic, N.
%A Schellnhuber, H.J.
%D 2017
%F iiasa:14498
%I American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
%J Science
%N 6331
%P 1269-1271
%R 10.1126/science.aah3443
%T A roadmap for rapid decarbonization
%U https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14498/
%V 355
%X Although the Paris Agreement's goals (1) are aligned with science (2) and can, in principle, be technically and economically achieved (3), alarming inconsistencies remain between science-based targets and national commitments. Despite progress during the 2016 Marrakech climate negotiations, long-term goals can be trumped by political short-termism. Following the Agreement, which became international law earlier than expected, several countries published mid-century decarbonization strategies, with more due soon. Model-based decarbonization assessments (4) and scenarios often struggle to capture transformative change and the dynamics associated with it: disruption, innovation, and nonlinear change in human behavior. For example, in just 2 years, China's coal use swung from 3.7% growth in 2013 to a decline of 3.7% in 2015 (5). To harness these dynamics and to calibrate for short-term realpolitik, we propose framing the decarbonization challenge in terms of a global decadal roadmap based on a simple heuristic—a “carbon law”—of halving gross anthropogenic carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions every decade. Complemented by immediately instigated, scalable carbon removal and efforts to ramp down land-use CO2 emissions, this can lead to net-zero emissions around mid-century, a path necessary to limit warming to well below 2°C.