?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F14553%2F&rft.title=Ultra-Low+Fertility+in+Korea%3A+The+Role+of+Tempo+Effect&rft.creator=Yoo%2C+S.H.&rft.creator=Sobotka%2C+T.&rft.description=Background%3A+The+total+fertility+rate+(TFR)+in+South+Korea+has+fallen+below+1.3+since+2001.+However%2C+little+is+known+about+the+role+of+the+rapid+shift+towards+late+childbearing+in+driving+Korean+fertility+decline+to+this+%E2%80%9Cultra-low%E2%80%9D+level.%0D%0AObjective%3A+We+provide+an+in-depth+analysis+of+period+fertility+trends+by+birth+order+in+South+Korea+from+1981+to+2014+when+the+period+TFR+fell+from+2.66+to+extreme+low+levels.%0D%0AMethods%3A+We+combine+census+and+birth+registration+data+to+estimate+period+and+cohort+fertility+indicators+by+birth+order.+We+compare+changes+in+conventional+TFR+with+tempo-+and+parity-adjusted+total+fertility+rate+(TFRp*)+and+their+birth+order-specific+components.%0D%0AResults%3A+Tempo+effect+linked+to+the+shift+towards+delayed+childbearing+has+had+a+strong+and+persistent+negative+influence+on+period+TFRs+in+Korea+since+the+early+1980s.+Without+the+shift+to+later+childbearing%2C+period+fertility+rates+in+Korea+would+consistently+stay+higher+and+would+decline+more+gradually%2C+falling+below+a+threshold+of+very+low+fertility%2C+1.5%2C+only+in+2014.+The+postponement+of+childbearing+and+the+resulting+tempo+effect+were+strongest+in+the+early+2000s%2C+when+Korean+TFR+reached+the+lowest+levels.+More+recently%2C+Korean+fertility+has+been+characterized+by+diminishing+tempo+effect+and+falling+first+and+second+birth+rates.+This+trend+marks+a+break+with+the+previous+pattern+of+almost+universal+fertility+and+a+strong+two-child+family+model.%0D%0AContribution%3A+Our+study+demonstrates+the+importance+of+tempo+effect+in+explaining+the+shift+to+%E2%80%9Cultra-low%E2%80%9D+fertility+in+Korea+and+in+East+Asia.&rft.publisher=WP-17-008&rft.date=2017-04-28&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.rights=cc_by&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F14553%2F1%2FWP-17-008.pdf&rft.identifier=++Yoo%2C+S.H.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F340.html%3E+%26+Sobotka%2C+T.++(2017).++Ultra-Low+Fertility+in+Korea%3A+The+Role+of+Tempo+Effect.+++IIASA+Working+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+WP-17-008+++++