?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4106%2F&rft.title=Estimating+the+Uncertainty+in+Population+Projections+by+Resampling+Methods&rft.creator=Goldstein%2C+J.R.&rft.creator=Lutz%2C+W.&rft.creator=Pflug%2C+G.C.&rft.description=This+paper+proposes+a+new+approach+to+introducing+quantitatively+measured+uncertainty+into+population+projections.+It+is+to+a+lesser+degree+based+on+past+time-series+than+other+approaches%2C+since+it+uses+random+walk+models+for+migration%2C+mortality+and+fertility%2C+for+which+upper+and+lower+bounds+are+defined.+No+parametric+distribution+is+fitted+to+the+observations%2C+but+the+random+walk+is+resampled+from+the+past+data.+By+putting+bounds+on+the+level+that+fertility+can+reach+in+the+future%2C+further+substantive+information+is+introduced+that+transcends+the+information+derived+from+the+observed+time+series.+By+sampling+10.000+path+of+the+random+walks+in+fertility%2C+mortality+and+migration%2C+the+distributions+of+population+size+and+structure+up+to+2050+for+Austria%2C+Mauritius+and+USA+are+estimated.&rft.publisher=WP-94-106&rft.date=1994-10&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4106%2F1%2FWP-94-106.pdf&rft.identifier=++Goldstein%2C+J.R.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F1291.html%3E%2C+Lutz%2C+W.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F190.html%3E+ORCID%3A+https%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0001-7975-8145+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0001-7975-8145%3E%2C+%26+Pflug%2C+G.C.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F229.html%3E+ORCID%3A+https%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0001-8215-3550+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0001-8215-3550%3E++(1994).++Estimating+the+Uncertainty+in+Population+Projections+by+Resampling+Methods.+++IIASA+Working+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+WP-94-106+++++