eprintid: 4106 rev_number: 25 eprint_status: archive userid: 351 dir: disk0/00/00/41/06 datestamp: 2016-01-15 02:04:07 lastmod: 2023-08-05 05:00:22 status_changed: 2016-01-15 02:04:07 type: monograph metadata_visibility: show item_issues_count: 2 creators_name: Goldstein, J.R. creators_name: Lutz, W. creators_name: Pflug, G.C. creators_id: 1533 creators_id: 1124 creators_id: 1361 creators_orcid: 0000-0001-7975-8145 creators_orcid: 0000-0001-8215-3550 title: Estimating the Uncertainty in Population Projections by Resampling Methods ispublished: pub internal_subjects: iis_met internal_subjects: iis_pop divisions: prog_pop abstract: This paper proposes a new approach to introducing quantitatively measured uncertainty into population projections. It is to a lesser degree based on past time-series than other approaches, since it uses random walk models for migration, mortality and fertility, for which upper and lower bounds are defined. No parametric distribution is fitted to the observations, but the random walk is resampled from the past data. By putting bounds on the level that fertility can reach in the future, further substantive information is introduced that transcends the information derived from the observed time series. By sampling 10.000 path of the random walks in fertility, mortality and migration, the distributions of population size and structure up to 2050 for Austria, Mauritius and USA are estimated. date: 1994-10 date_type: published publisher: WP-94-106 iiasapubid: WP-94-106 price: 10 creators_browse_id: 1291 creators_browse_id: 190 creators_browse_id: 229 full_text_status: public monograph_type: working_paper place_of_pub: IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria pages: 25 coversheets_dirty: FALSE fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/book citation: Goldstein, J.R. , Lutz, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145 , & Pflug, G.C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8215-3550 (1994). Estimating the Uncertainty in Population Projections by Resampling Methods. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-94-106 document_url: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4106/1/WP-94-106.pdf