?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4136%2F&rft.title=Predictability%2C+Complexity%2C+and+Catastrophe+in+a+Collapsible+Model+of+Population%2C+Development%2C+and+Environmental+Interactions&rft.creator=Sanderson%2C+W.C.&rft.description=More+and+more+population+forecasts+are+being+produced+with+associated+95+percent+confidence+intervals.+How+confident+are+we+of+those+confidence+intervals%3F+In+this+paper%2C+we+produce+a+simulated+dataset+in+which+we+know+both+past+and+future+population+sizes%2C+and+the+true+95+percent+confidence+intervals+at+various+future+dates.+We+use+the+past+data+to+produce+population+forecasts+and+estimated+95+percent+confidence+intervals+using+various+methodologies.+We%2C+then%2C+compare+the+true+95+percent+confidence+intervals+with+the+estimated+ones.+This+comparison+shows+that+we+are+not+at+all+confident+in+the+estimated+95+percent+confidence+intervals.+Indeed%2C+even+calling+them+confidence+intervals+is+quite+misleading.&rft.publisher=WP-94-075&rft.date=1994-08&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4136%2F1%2FWP-94-075.pdf&rft.identifier=++Sanderson%2C+W.C.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F265.html%3E++(1994).++Predictability%2C+Complexity%2C+and+Catastrophe+in+a+Collapsible+Model+of+Population%2C+Development%2C+and+Environmental+Interactions.+++IIASA+Working+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+WP-94-075+++++