eprintid: 4136
rev_number: 22
eprint_status: archive
userid: 351
dir: disk0/00/00/41/36
datestamp: 2016-01-15 02:04:15
lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:14:51
status_changed: 2016-01-15 02:04:15
type: monograph
metadata_visibility: show
item_issues_count: 3
creators_name: Sanderson, W.C.
creators_id: 1631
title: Predictability, Complexity, and Catastrophe in a Collapsible Model of Population, Development, and Environmental Interactions
ispublished: pub
internal_subjects: iis_env
internal_subjects: iis_mod
internal_subjects: iis_pop
divisions: prog_pop
abstract: More and more population forecasts are being produced with associated 95 percent confidence intervals. How confident are we of those confidence intervals? In this paper, we produce a simulated dataset in which we know both past and future population sizes, and the true 95 percent confidence intervals at various future dates. We use the past data to produce population forecasts and estimated 95 percent confidence intervals using various methodologies. We, then, compare the true 95 percent confidence intervals with the estimated ones. This comparison shows that we are not at all confident in the estimated 95 percent confidence intervals. Indeed, even calling them confidence intervals is quite misleading.
date: 1994-08
date_type: published
publisher: WP-94-075
iiasapubid: WP-94-075
price: 10
creators_browse_id: 265
full_text_status: public
monograph_type: working_paper
place_of_pub: IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
pages: 34
coversheets_dirty: FALSE
fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/book
citation:   Sanderson, W.C. <https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/265.html>  (1994).  Predictability, Complexity, and Catastrophe in a Collapsible Model of Population, Development, and Environmental Interactions.   IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-94-075     
document_url: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4136/1/WP-94-075.pdf