?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4169%2F&rft.title=A+Belief+Network+Approach+to+Modeling+of+Environmental+Change%3A+The+Methodology+and+Prospects+for+Application&rft.creator=Varis%2C+O.&rft.description=In+environmental+management%2C+assessments+and+far-reaching+decisions+must+typically+be+made+under+very+high+or+extreme+uncertainty.+The+future+development+of+the+environment+in+interaction+with+societies+in+transition+is+very+difficult+to+forecast.+This+is+the+case+regardless+of+whether+the+change+is+introduced+actively+at+the+project+or+policy+level%2C+or+passively+through+accumulated+environmental+deterioration+or+climatic+change.+This+study+presents+a+belief+network+methodology+designed+specifically+for+modeling+environmental+change.+Belief+networks+contain+a+set+of+interlinked+nodes.+Prior+probability+distributions+of+nodes+are+updated+with+information+from+the+rest+of+the+network%2C+according+to+transfer+information+in+links.+A+link+can+transmit+information+in+two+directions.+The+existing+belief+network+methodology+was+extended+in+several+ways+to+meet+the+multiple+requirements+of+environmental+modeling.+Most+notably%2C+two-layered+parallel+linking+of+nodes+was+allowed%3A+the+conventional+probabilistic+linking%2C+and+linking+of+outcomes+of+probability+distributions+using+deterministic+or+logical+relations.+Moreover%2C+several+decision+analysis+techniques+were+included.+The+applicability+of+the+methodology+is+discussed+in+reference+to+the+following+topics%3A+knowledge+acquisition%2C+decision+analytic+modeling%2C+mechanistic+and+process+modeling%2C+topological+and+spatial+modeling%2C+learning+and+adaptive+modeling%2C+and+hybrid+use.&rft.publisher=WP-94-040&rft.date=1994-05&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4169%2F1%2FWP-94-040.pdf&rft.identifier=++Varis%2C+O.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F2475.html%3E++(1994).++A+Belief+Network+Approach+to+Modeling+of+Environmental+Change%3A+The+Methodology+and+Prospects+for+Application.+++IIASA+Working+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+WP-94-040+++++