eprintid: 4169 rev_number: 21 eprint_status: archive userid: 351 dir: disk0/00/00/41/69 datestamp: 2016-01-15 02:04:34 lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:14:54 status_changed: 2016-01-15 02:04:34 type: monograph metadata_visibility: show item_issues_count: 2 creators_name: Varis, O. creators_id: AL1331 title: A Belief Network Approach to Modeling of Environmental Change: The Methodology and Prospects for Application ispublished: pub internal_subjects: iis_ecl internal_subjects: iis_env internal_subjects: iis_met internal_subjects: iis_wat abstract: In environmental management, assessments and far-reaching decisions must typically be made under very high or extreme uncertainty. The future development of the environment in interaction with societies in transition is very difficult to forecast. This is the case regardless of whether the change is introduced actively at the project or policy level, or passively through accumulated environmental deterioration or climatic change. This study presents a belief network methodology designed specifically for modeling environmental change. Belief networks contain a set of interlinked nodes. Prior probability distributions of nodes are updated with information from the rest of the network, according to transfer information in links. A link can transmit information in two directions. The existing belief network methodology was extended in several ways to meet the multiple requirements of environmental modeling. Most notably, two-layered parallel linking of nodes was allowed: the conventional probabilistic linking, and linking of outcomes of probability distributions using deterministic or logical relations. Moreover, several decision analysis techniques were included. The applicability of the methodology is discussed in reference to the following topics: knowledge acquisition, decision analytic modeling, mechanistic and process modeling, topological and spatial modeling, learning and adaptive modeling, and hybrid use. date: 1994-05 date_type: published publisher: WP-94-040 iiasapubid: WP-94-040 price: 10 creators_browse_id: 2475 full_text_status: public monograph_type: working_paper place_of_pub: IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria pages: 21 coversheets_dirty: FALSE fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/book citation: Varis, O. (1994). A Belief Network Approach to Modeling of Environmental Change: The Methodology and Prospects for Application. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-94-040 document_url: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4169/1/WP-94-040.pdf