?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4213%2F&rft.title=Bridging+Gaps+Among+Scientific+Disciplines.+Paper+Presented+on+IIASA's+20th+Anniversary&rft.creator=Koptyug%2C+V.&rft.creator=Ahearne%2C+J.&rft.creator=Weidlich%2C+W.&rft.creator=Weaver%2C+P.&rft.description=IIASA+celebrated+its+twentieth+anniversary+on+May+12-13+with+its+fourth+general+conference%2C+IIASA+'92%3A+An+International+Conference+on+the+Challenges+to+Systems+Analysis+in+the+Nineties+and+Beyond.+The+conference+focused+on+the+relations+between+environment+and+development+and+on+studies+that+integrate+the+methods+and+findings+of+several+disciplines.+The+role+of+systems+analysis%2C+a+method+especially+suited+to+taking+account+of+the+linkages+between+phenomena+and+of+the+hierarchical+organization+of+the+natural+and+social+world%2C+was+also+assessed%2C+taking+account+of+the+implications+this+has+for+IIASA's+research+approach+and+activities.+%0A%0AThis+paper+is+one+of+six+IIASA+Collaborative+Papers+published+as+part+of+the+report+on+the+conference%2C+an+earlier+instalment+of+which+was+Science+and+Sustainability%2C+published+in+1992.+%0A%0AProfessor+Koptyug's+paper+is+written+from+the+viewpoint+of+a+chemist%2C+but+of+one+who+has+an+unusual+consciousness+of+error+in+estimates+of+some+of+the+vital+parameters+affecting+the+environment.+He+finds+a+variation+of+100+percent+between+the+low+and+high+estimates+of+absorption+of+carbon+dioxide+by+the+oceans%2C+and+adding+that+to+the+similar+variation+in+estimate+of+emissions+and+related+quantities+he+ends+up+with+a+four-fold+variation+between+the+lowest+and+the+highest+rate+of+accumulation+of+carbon+dioxide+in+the+atmosphere.+%0A%0AYet+the+paper+does+not+argue+from+this+that+we+should+do+nothing+until+we+know+more.+We+know+in+what+directions+we+have+to+move+as+we+try+for+stability%2C+and+are+learning+something+about+directions+we+should+not+try.+A+lesson+was+learned+in+this+latter+sense+from+the+building+of+a+dam+across+a+bay+in+the+Caspian+Sea+in+order+to+reduce+evaporation.+The+story+is+that+with+the+agricultural+and+industrial+development+along+the+Volga+River+the+level+of+the+Caspian+Sea+fell+by+three+meters+between+1933+and+1977.+It+was+hoped+that+the+darn+separating+off+the+Black+Jaws+Gulf+would+counteract+the+withdrawal+of+water+from+higher+up.+But+there+seems+at+the+same+time+to+have+been+a+flow+of+water+of+unknown+origin+into+the+Caspian+Sea.+The+Gulf+dried+out+by+evaporation%2C+while+the+Caspian+Sea+rose+a+wholly+unanticipated+13+centimeters+per+year.+Such+a+rise+was+disastrous+for+people+living+along+the+coast%2C+and+the+dam+is+now+to+be+destroyed.+%0A%0AFor+me+the+lesson+is+not+that+we+should+never+do+anything+about+the+environment%2C+hut+rather+that+we+should+look+very+closely+and+be+very+sure+of+our+knowledge+base+before+we+try+smart+tricks+with+the+planet+in+the+hope+of+neutralizing+the+effects+of+irresponsible+industrialization.+One+such+smart+trick+that+was+fortunately+checked+before+it+started+to+be+built+was+the+diversion+southward+of+four+major+rivers+that+flow+into+the+Arctic+Ocean.+No+one+has+any+way+of+estimating+what+unanticipated+results+might+come+from+that%2C+what+uncontrollable+positive+feedback+loops+it+might+initiate.+These+are+among+the+things+I+have+learned+from+Professor+Koptyug's+paper.&rft.publisher=CP-94-008&rft.date=1994-04&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4213%2F1%2FCP-94-008.pdf&rft.identifier=++Koptyug%2C+V.%2C+Ahearne%2C+J.%2C+Weidlich%2C+W.%2C+%26+Weaver%2C+P.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F2503.html%3E++(1994).++Bridging+Gaps+Among+Scientific+Disciplines.+Paper+Presented+on+IIASA's+20th+Anniversary.+++IIASA+Collaborative+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+CP-94-008+++++