?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4215%2F&rft.title=Decision+Making+Under+Uncertainty.+Paper+Presented+on+IIASA's+20th+Anniversary&rft.creator=Krasovskii%2C+N.N.&rft.creator=Feichtinger%2C+G.&rft.creator=Hofer%2C+E.P.&rft.creator=Ermoliev%2C+Y.M.&rft.description=IIASA+celebrated+its+twentieth+anniversary+on+May+12-13+with+its+fourth+general+conference%2C+IIASA+'92%3A+An+International+Conference+on+the+Challenges+to+Systems+Analysis+in+the+Nineties+and+Beyond.+The+conference+focused+on+the+relations+between+environment+and+development+and+on+studies+that+integrate+the+methods+and+findings+of+several+disciplines.+The+role+of+systems+analysis%2C+a+method+especially+suited+to+taking+account+of+the+linkages+between+phenomena+and+of+the+hierarchical+organization+of+the+natural+and+social+world%2C+was+also+assessed%2C+taking+account+of+the+implications+this+has+for+IIASA's+research+approach+and+activities.+%0D%0A%0D%0AThis+paper+is+one+of+six+IIASA+Collaborative+Papers+published+as+part+of+the+report+on+the+conference%2C+an+earlier+instalment+of+which+was+Science+and+Sustainability%2C+published+in+1992.+%0D%0A%0D%0AWhen+policy+advisors+come+to+appreciate+that+real+uncertainty+will+affect+the+application+of+their+recommendations+they+usually+respond+in+one+of+two+ways%3A+(1)+They+may+say+that+there+are+many+possibilities%2C+and+then+prepare+a+scenario+for+each%3B+knowing+the+options+advances+the+policy+maker+a+little+but+his+real+decision+making+is+not+advanced%2C+and+on+that+he+is+left+without+advice.+(2)+They+say+that+the+uncertainties+are+so+great+that+action+had+better+be+delayed+until+more+is+known%3B+this+recommendation+for+inaction+is+often+very+attractive+to+a+policymaker%2C+especially+if+getting+more+knowledge+will+mean+waiting+to+enact+some+unpopular+measure+until+a+successor+takes+over+the+office.+%0D%0A%0D%0ASince+there+are+no+situations+in+which+data+is+complete+and+exact%2C+what+can+be+done%3F+That+question+is+specially+relevant+to+environmental+decisions.+At+least+policy+can+avoid+what+is+called+the+prisoners'+dilemma%2C+where+two+people+making+rational+decisions+independently%2C+i.e.%2C+each+not+knowing+what+the+other+will+decide%2C+can+put+themselves+into+a+worse+condition+than+if+they+make+certain+decisions+that+from+the+individual+viewpoint+are+irrational%2C+and+much+worse+than+if+they+participate+in+a+collective+decision.+French+indicative+planning%2C+now+less+favored+than+it+was%2C+aims+to+spread+knowledge+to+each+enterprise+in+an+industry+of+what+the+competitors+are+intending%2C+in+the+hope+that+that+that+will+mean+better+decisions+all+around.+A+special+case+is+what+economists+call+externality%2C+where+a+piece+of+common+property+is+exploited+by+independent+individuals%2C+solitary+choosers.+One+of+the+questions+is+whether+the+prisoner's+dilemma+and+externalities+can+be+handled+by+dissemination+of+information+alone%2C+or+whether+some+form+of+compulsion+is+required%2C+for+example+compulsion+in+the+form+of+required+pollution+permits.+These+would+give+those+who+choose+to+buy+them+a+marketable+permission+to+exploit%2C+and+it+can+be+shown+that+the+outcome+is+economically+superior+to+any+instruction+from+above.+%0D%0A%0D%0AProfessor+Krasovskii+provides+some+models%2C+simple+in+form+but+sophisticated+in+substance%2C+that+show+the+nature+of+the+problem+of+uncertainty+in+decision+making%2C+and+how+at+least+in+theory+it+can+he+dealt+with.&rft.publisher=CP-94-006&rft.date=1994-04&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4215%2F1%2FCP-94-006.pdf&rft.identifier=++Krasovskii%2C+N.N.%2C+Feichtinger%2C+G.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F2589.html%3E%2C+Hofer%2C+E.P.%2C+%26+Ermoliev%2C+Y.M.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F338.html%3E++(1994).++Decision+Making+Under+Uncertainty.+Paper+Presented+on+IIASA's+20th+Anniversary.+++IIASA+Collaborative+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+CP-94-006+++++