?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4217%2F&rft.title=The+Biosphere+and+Humanity.+Paper+Presented+on+IIASA's+20th+Anniversary&rft.creator=Chadwick%2C+M.J.&rft.creator=Munn%2C+R.E.&rft.creator=Amann%2C+M.&rft.description=IIASA+celebrated+its+twentieth+anniversary+on+May+12-13+with+its+fourth+general+conference%2C+IIASA+'92%3A+An+International+Conference+on+the+Challenges+to+Systems+Analysis+in+the+Nineties+and+Beyond.+The+conference+focused+on+the+relations+between+environment+and+development+and+on+studies+that+integrate+the+methods+and+findings+of+several+disciplines.+The+role+of+systems+analysis%2C+a+method+especially+suited+to+taking+account+of+the+linkages+between+phenomena+and+of+the+hierarchical+organization+of+the+natural+and+social+world%2C+was+also+assessed%2C+taking+account+of+the+implications+this+has+for+IIASA's+research+approach+and+activities.+%0A%0AThis+paper+is+one+of+six+IIASA+Collaborative+Papers+published+as+part+of+the+report+on+the+conference%2C+an+earlier+instalment+of+which+was+Science+and+Sustainability%2C+published+in+1992.+%0A%0AIn+his+paper+Dr.+Chadwick+provides+a+summary+of+the+principal+global+models+to+attract+attention+over+the+last+few+years.+What+may+be+called+the+%22global+modeling+movement%22+reached+its+peak+in+the+1970s+--+ten+are+listed+in+Chadwick's+summary+--+and+then+declined+down+to+two+in+the+1980s%2C+but+apparently+the+movement+has+by+no+means+lost+its+force+in+the+1990s.+%0A%0ATo+this+reader+the+interest+of+the+models+is+in+the+varied+and+often+mutually+contradicting+results+that+they+produced%2C+all+working+from+similar+data+and+using+computer+programs+with+about+the+same+features.+Thus+the+World+2+model%2C+attributed+to+Jay+Forrester%2C+and+World+3%2C+developed+by+Meadows+et+al.%2C+both+showed+that+the+world+has+already%2C+or+on+present+trends+will+soon%2C+pass+its+sustainable+limit+and+then+collapse.+The+Rariloche+model%2C+originating+in+Argentina+that+has+had+financial+difficulties%2C+considers+that+if+the+developed+countries+can+pass+down+two+percent+of+GNP+as+aid+all+will+be+well+-+the+environmental+problem+is+less+urgent+than+the+financial.+The+Japanese+model%2C+FUGI%2C+would+attain+harmonious+growth+by+shifting+investment+to+developing+countries%2C+provided+there+is+coordination+among+the+investing+countries.+%0A%0ADr.+Chadwick's+group+is+preparing+its+own+model%2C+POLESTAR%2C+that+should+be+released+soon.+Much+of+the+paper+is+concerned+with+the+new+model%2C+that+will+have+some+novel+and+potentially+valuable+features.+What+are+the+criteria+of+success+of+a+model%3F+In+the+past+the+main+criterion+has+been+to+arouse+the+interest+of+a+wide+public.+POLESTAR+seeks+to+meet+more+exacting+requirements+than+this.+We+will+have+to+wait+for+the+results+before+its+success+can+be+judged.+Meanwhile+the+reader+will+be+interested+in+the+plan+on+which+it+is+being+created.&rft.publisher=CP-94-004&rft.date=1994-04&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4217%2F1%2FCP-94-004.pdf&rft.identifier=++Chadwick%2C+M.J.%2C+Munn%2C+R.E.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F2215.html%3E%2C+%26+Amann%2C+M.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F15.html%3E+ORCID%3A+https%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0002-1963-0972+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0002-1963-0972%3E++(1994).++The+Biosphere+and+Humanity.+Paper+Presented+on+IIASA's+20th+Anniversary.+++IIASA+Collaborative+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+CP-94-004+++++