https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4256 2021-08-27T17:15:02Z info:eu-repo/semantics/descriptiveMetadata https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4256/ Predictability, complexity, and catastrophe in a collapsible model of population, development, and environmental interactions Sanderson, W.C. More and more population forecasts are being produced with associated 95 percent confidence intervals. How confident are we of those confidence intervals? In this paper, we produce a simulated dataset in which we know both past and future population sizes, and the true 95 percent confidence intervals at various future dates. We use the past data to produce population forecasts and estimated 95 percent confidence intervals using various functional forms. We, then, compare the true 95 percent confidence intervals with the estimated ones. This comparison shows that we are not at all confident of the estimated 95 percent confidence intervals. Routledge 1995 Article PeerReviewed Sanderson, W.C. <https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/265.html> (1995). Predictability, complexity, and catastrophe in a collapsible model of population, development, and environmental interactions. Mathematical Population Studies 5 (3) 259-279. 10.1080/08898489509525405 <https://doi.org/10.1080/08898489509525405>. 10.1080/08898489509525405 10.1080/08898489509525405 10.1080/08898489509525405 info:eu-repo/semantics/humanStartPage