RT Journal Article
SR 00
ID 10.1080/08898489509525405
A1 Sanderson, W.C.
T1 Predictability, complexity, and catastrophe in a collapsible model of population, development, and environmental interactions
JF Mathematical Population Studies
YR 1995
FD 1995
VO 5
IS 3
SP 259
OP 279
K1 Population forecasting; Population confidence intervals; Population prediction intervals; Model complexity; Demographic economic and environmental interactions
AB More and more population forecasts are being produced with associated 95 percent confidence intervals. How confident are we of those confidence intervals? In this paper, we produce a simulated dataset in which we know both past and future population sizes, and the true 95 percent confidence intervals at various future dates. We use the past data to produce population forecasts and estimated 95 percent confidence intervals using various functional forms. We, then, compare the true 95 percent confidence intervals with the estimated ones. This comparison shows that we are not at all confident of the estimated 95 percent confidence intervals.
PB Routledge
SN 1547-724X
LK https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4256/