eprintid: 4256 rev_number: 4 eprint_status: archive userid: 351 dir: disk0/00/00/42/56 datestamp: 2016-01-15 02:05:05 lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:15:02 status_changed: 2016-01-15 02:05:05 type: article metadata_visibility: show item_issues_count: 2 creators_name: Sanderson, W.C. creators_id: 1631 title: Predictability, complexity, and catastrophe in a collapsible model of population, development, and environmental interactions ispublished: pub internal_subjects: iis_mod internal_subjects: iis_pop internal_subjects: iis_env divisions: prog_pop keywords: Population forecasting; Population confidence intervals; Population prediction intervals; Model complexity; Demographic economic and environmental interactions abstract: More and more population forecasts are being produced with associated 95 percent confidence intervals. How confident are we of those confidence intervals? In this paper, we produce a simulated dataset in which we know both past and future population sizes, and the true 95 percent confidence intervals at various future dates. We use the past data to produce population forecasts and estimated 95 percent confidence intervals using various functional forms. We, then, compare the true 95 percent confidence intervals with the estimated ones. This comparison shows that we are not at all confident of the estimated 95 percent confidence intervals. date: 1995 date_type: published publisher: Routledge id_number: 10.1080/08898489509525405 iiasapubid: XJ-95-078 iiasa_bibref: Mathematical Population Studies; 5(3):259-279 (1995) iiasa_bibnotes: [doi:10.1080/08898489509525405]. Special Issue: Population Projections: Simple vs Complex Models. Also available as IIASA Working Paper WP-94-075 <www.iiasa.ac.at/Admin/PUB/Documents/WP-94-075.pdf> creators_browse_id: 265 full_text_status: none publication: Mathematical Population Studies volume: 5 number: 3 pagerange: 259-279 refereed: TRUE issn: 1547-724X coversheets_dirty: FALSE fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article citation: Sanderson, W.C. (1995). Predictability, complexity, and catastrophe in a collapsible model of population, development, and environmental interactions. Mathematical Population Studies 5 (3) 259-279. 10.1080/08898489509525405 .