?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4492%2F&rft.title=An+Interactive+Reservoir+Management+System+for+Lake+Kariba&rft.creator=Stam%2C+A.&rft.creator=Salewicz%2C+K.A.&rft.creator=Aronson%2C+J.E.&rft.description=This+paper+presents+a+user-interactive+decision+support+system+(DSS)+for+the+management+of+the+Lake+Kariba+reservoir.+Built+in+the+fourth-generation+computer+language+IFPS%2C+the+system+takes+into+account+relevant+reservoir+characteristics+and+parameters%2C+such+as+the+amount+of+hydropower+generated%2C+reservoir+storage+throughout+the+year%2C+and+the+amount+of+water+released+for+down-stream+usage.+The+system+blends+water+release+rules+determined+previously+using+optimization+and+simulation-based+scenario+analyses+with+expert+input+from+an+experienced+reservoir+manager%2C+yielding+an+intuitive+and+realistic+DSS+with+which+the+reservoir+manager+may+easily+identify.+The+DSS+also+includes+a+Box-Jenkins+time+series+model+that+forecasts+future+inflows.+Each+month%2C+the+system+provides+the+manager+with+a+proposed+release+schedule%2C+which+the+manager+then+uses+to+explore+and+evaluate+the+consequences+in+terms+of+the+decision+criteria%2C+over+an+extended+period+of+time.+The+types+of+information+provided+to+and+sought+from+the+manager+correspond+closely+with+actual+reservoir+management+practice.+An+important+characteristic+of+the+system+is+that+the+manager+can+quickly+explore+various+different+potential+release+decisions+a+priori%2C+for+a+variety+of+potential+inflow+scenarios%2C+including+predicted+inflows+for+average+hydrological+years%2C+as+well+as+inflows+reflecting+extreme+events+such+as+drought+and+flood+periods.+The+manager+can+compare+the+results+of+the+release+decisions+made+in+the+scenario+analysis%2C+both+with+the+release+strategy+proposed+by+the+system+and+with+historical+release+decisions%2C+thus+aiding+the+manager+in+establishing+effective+reservoir+management+policies+in+practice.+Thus%2C+rather+than+a+mechanical+value%2C+our+DSS+offers+the+manager+a+flexible+problem+analysis+with+suggested+courses+of+action.+We+illustrate+the+system+using+example+sessions+with+an+experienced+reservoir+manager.+While+the+system+is+designed+specifically+to+support+the+management+of+Lake+Kariba%2C+its+extension+to+a+more+general+class+of+reservoir+management+problems+is+straightforward.&rft.publisher=WP-95-104&rft.date=1995-09&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4492%2F1%2FWP-95-104.pdf&rft.identifier=++Stam%2C+A.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F1588.html%3E%2C+Salewicz%2C+K.A.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F2350.html%3E%2C+%26+Aronson%2C+J.E.++(1995).++An+Interactive+Reservoir+Management+System+for+Lake+Kariba.+++IIASA+Working+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+WP-95-104+++++